The electoral episode and the relationship of forces. Editorial of “El Círculo Rojo”, a program on La Izquierda Diario that is broadcast every Saturday from 12 to 2 p.m. on Radio Con Vos (89.9 FM).

  • Today is closed Saturday. That norm with which this political regime intends to show itself with responsibility or seriousness in the face of popular decision. The democratic rights of the majorities are systematically violated, but 48 hours before you cannot campaign. There are no surveys, no slogans, no spots. There is, yes, a real country that comes to the election with destroyed pockets, violated rights, the future for sale, and a social mood that is very adverse to this Government. Perhaps we can take advantage of this opportunity to think about what is at stake the day after.

  • The social and economic indicators speak for themselves: salaries, retirements, decline in activity, collapse in consumption. There’s not much to explain there, anyone who doesn’t live in a bubble can see it.

  • With this background context, the ruling party goes to the polls much worse than it expected and what it promised. Until not long ago, Milei said that he was going to “paint the country purple” and with that majority push for the three major counter-reforms—labor, pension, and tax—that would allow him to turn the country around on average. That story that I imagined on a Sunday in which it “devastated” is no longer going to take place.
  • A broader and deeper political reading corresponds here: beyond what the “political translation” was like, how this was expressed in the different elections that have taken place so far or in the drop in the polls; What is in the background is a social majority that has set a limit. This social majority had advanced, more active sectors (retired men and women, Garrahan, university students, families and people with disabilities), and together they constituted a limit that was later expressed in different ways.

  • In terms of concrete political aspirations, the Government arrives without the majority it promised. Without that figure (expressed in legislators) there will be no fast track for a comprehensive labor reform that reduces layoffs, cuts compensation or makes employment even more precarious; nor for an express pension reform that structurally liquefies assets nor for a regressive tax redesign à la carte for big capital. They may insist by decree, regulate chapters of the “Bases Law,” or look for regulatory shortcuts—they already do it, in fact, not complying even with voted laws or rejected vetoes—but each step will be caught in the braid of votes, precautionary and street. The regulation by decree of the labor chapter of the Base Law was an advance: when there are no solid majorities, the blockade becomes daily. And the union leadership reduced its action only to the legal-judicial field.

  • What is striking is that this deflation occurs even with enormous support from large national or international capital, from the IMF (the IDB, the World Bank), now the US Treasury. But the dollar tap can prevent or postpone financial disaster, but it does not buy political legitimacy.
  • That the “realistic” agenda of the ruling party, at most, will be a “blocking third” and case-by-case negotiation, I insist is the product of a social limit established in multiple areas. The Government is going to try to wake up on Monday by selling a “national percentage” to cover up local defeats, although we have to see the fine points of the results because the bulk has already been announced. But it will be difficult to cover reality with a drawing.

  • This accelerated collapse of the Government and this unusual experience of the extreme right in power is, first of all, a lesson for the defeatists who expanded the political capacity, ideological influence or ascendancy that, evidently, they did not have over society and that also favored them.
  • What’s left to say or do on Monday? At least two things: defeat the plan—not just its laws—and prevent the next crisis from being paid again by the majorities. Because the temptation of this Government (like that of many), when it does not gather the necessary beans, is to unload through the window what it cannot put through the door. If the votes for the pension reform do not come out, they will seek to liquidate assets as they have been doing; If the substantive changes in work do not come about, they will seek to make it more flexible by agreement, province by province, company by company; If the tax changes don’t come out, they will adjust.

  • Don’t be confused: just because they don’t have the majority doesn’t mean that the plan has collapsed on its own. It means that there are conditions to stop it in Congress and in the streets. The immediate challenge is not to determine the limit, but what to do with that limit. Translate the “up to here” into an agenda and a concrete program: salaries and pensions above real inflation; joint ventures without a roof and without extortion; defense of agreements and statutes against any fragmented flexibility; educational budget.
  • On Monday, whatever the photo, we will have to continue: when the ruling party tries to force by decree what cannot be voted on, it will have to be rejected or challenged; If you are looking to liquefy retirees, the same or if you want to continue with labor flexibility. Of course, this is not independent of what is voted on tomorrow, but we are closed and you will already have your decision made.

  • The most important thing has already been heard: there will be no automatic majority for the major counter-reforms. That fact does not fall from the sky: it was built by a country that did not buy the “there is no alternative” script. The first round is settled: there was a social brake. The second begins on Monday: defeat the plan and prevent the exit from being paid again by those who live from their work.

    • Politics / Javier Milei

    Source: www.laizquierdadiario.com



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