Meat becomes luxury article in the US after Trump I tax agro from Brazil

With historical drop in herd and tariffs against Brazil, the US faces a high record in meat prices and a direct impact on the consumer table

With lit barbecues and the raised grill season, Americans are faced with a tasty scenario: beef prices have reached the highest levels ever recorded in the country. Bexes and hamburgers are more expensive than ever, and the reason goes beyond inflation. If you are thinking that preparing a good barbecue has required more than talent on the grill, that’s right. The average raw steak price in the United States rose 8% in the last year, reaching US $ 11.49 per pound – The highest amount ever recorded, according to Federal Government data. Ground beef, essential for the traditional American hamburger, fired almost 12%reaching also the unprecedented level of US $ 6.12 per pound.

The impact is straightforward in everyday life. For many families, a simple home hamburger dinner requires not only melted cheddar cheese, but also a more generous budget. High successive prices have been turning which has always been a symbol of practicality and fraternization into an almost luxury item at the Americans table.

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Why is the meat so expensive?

The answer is in the field – or rather the scarcity inside it. The US cattle herd shrunk and is today 8% lower than in 2019reaching your lower level in over 70 years. The main cause? A combination of years of drought and high operating costs.

With less pasture available and the cost of animal feed at high, Farmers were forced to sell part of their herdsincluding females that would be used for reproduction. Result: Less calves are born, and cattle replacement becomes slower and more expensive.

Furthermore, High interest They have made financing difficult for those who think of investing in the expansion of herds. In a scenario where loans are expensive, many producers choose not to risk – and the scarcity cycle is feeded back.

Not even the meat outside has saved

Importing beef could be a way out, but the obstacles accumulate. The US government recently suspended Mexico’s live cattle imports as a way to block the entrance of the New World Bicheiraa carnivorous fly that threatens local herds.

The situation gets worse with President Donald Trump’s commercial decisions. According to Axios, About 23% of the US imported beef comes from Braziland from August 1 will enter into force a 50% rate on these products. The announcement has already led Brazilian refrigerators to reconsider future shipments, as Reuters revealed.

Prolonged impact and preventive actions

This is not a punctual problem. The expectation, according to experts in the sector, is that The instability in beef prices extends for at least two to four years. KC Cattle Company, a reference in the sector, told Axios that the market should still go through a turbulent period before some stabilization.

In an attempt to protect themselves, large retail networks are already reacting. Walmart, for example, Inaugurated its first unit of its own beef processingseeking to have greater control over the supply chain and reduce external dependencies.

Meanwhile, the consumer continues to try to balance the appetite with the budget. In times when a good hamburger requires more calculation than condiments, grills are still lit – but with increasingly moderate portions.

Trump imposes tariffs on Brazil and lights alert in strategic sectors: “It’s blackmail,” experts say

With a pen, US President Donald Trump rewrite the rules of the commercial game with Brazil. From August 1all Brazilian exports to the US market will suffer a 50% ratemeasure that experts classify as an explicit form of political pressure – and that can bring serious consequences for the Brazilian economy.

The decision was officially announced in a Letter sent to Luiz Inacio Lula da SilvaPresident of Brazil, and it was not long to generate strong repercussion. For economists and international trade analysts, the scenario is alarming: it is, in practice, a commercial blockade disguised as a tariffcapable of affecting entire productive chains, generating unemployment and overthrowing the price of food and commodities in the domestic market.

“Of the total exports in Brazil, about 15% go to the United States. But it is important to highlight that it is mainly manufactured and semimanized product. If this will be maintained, we will have unemployment in Brazil, we will have a decrease in dollars in the country and this is very serious,” he says, he says Roberto Goulart Menezesprofessor at the University of Brasilia (UnB) and researcher at the US National Institute (Ineu).

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Oil, steel, aircraft: the preferred targets of the fare

Among the sectors that will first feel the thud of the new tariff policy are those of oil, steel, machines, aircraft and electronics. Companies such as Petrobras and Embraer They can be directly impacted, with exports locked or unfeasible by new costs.

“Embraer has a reasonable US market with some of its jets, and Petrobras exports oil there. They can redirect part of these sales, but lose access to the most strategic market on the planet,” he explains Alexandre PiresProfessor of International Relations and Economics at IBMEC-SP.

Agribusiness under pressure: sugar, meat, coffee and orange juice in check

In the field, the blow can come hard. Sugar, coffee, beef and orange juice – pillars of Brazilian agribusiness – are part of the export agenda for the US. With the fare, many of these products should lose competitiveness out thereforcing producers to direct production to the domestic market.

The most immediate effect? Fall in price in Brazilespecially in the case of agricultural commodities. If, on the one hand, the consumer can find cheaper meat and coffee, on the other, The pressure on producers and industries will be immense.

“Every time some kind of closure occurs, even when it is self -employed for phytosanitary reasons, prices fall. And it is likely to happen now with meat, orange juice and coffee,” says Pires.

Business pressure and prolonged risks

The expectation between experts is that Brazilian economic elites press for a quick solution. However, any negotiation will depend on Trump’s opening – something uncertain, especially in the US election year.

“Even if these rates last six months or a year, the problem will be resuming these markets later. The damage can be lasting,” warns Pires.

US surplus and aggressive rhetoric

Although Trump justifies the rates with the argument of supposed injustice in trade relationsthe data show another reality. Bilateral trade between Brazil and the US revolves around US $ 80 billion per yearand the United States themselves record US $ 200 million surplus In this scale.

“What Donald Trump is doing is trying to block the Brazil-United States Trade. A blackmail. These tariffs are not reasonable,” says Roberto Goulart.

According to him, the aggressive tactic is known and has been used by Trump in his previous term, with targets like Canada, Mexico, Japan and South Korea.

Geopolitical conflict and tension with the BRICS

The moment of the decision is not by chance either. The sanction comes In the same week of the Brics Summit in Rio de Janeiroevent marked by rhetorical clashes between Lula and Trump. The American had already signaled that would retaliate the bloc countries-especially by seeing the expansion of the influence of the group as a direct threat to US hegemony.

“Trump confuses multipolarity and transformations in the dynamics of global geopolitics with anti -Americanism. Deep down, to him, facing the BRICS is a way of facing China,” says Goulart.

A message beyond the economy

Trump’s decision also carries symbolic and political components. According to experts, in addition to commercially punishing Brazil, the gesture also targets recent positions of the Lula government, as the defense of regulation of social networksacting in Supreme Federal Court (STF) and the Narrowing of bows with China.

“This rate against Brazil has several components: STF effect, BRICS effect, social networks effect. And lastly, alleged commercial reasons,” points out Alexandre Pires.

What’s up ahead?

With the deadline for starting tariffs – August 1Brazil will have little time to negotiate. The expectation now is that the Lula government seeks international support and try to open diplomatic channels with other relevant actorsincluding the European Union and Asian countries.

Meanwhile, strategic sectors of the economy are already moving to recalculate routes, review budgets and deal with losses. For many, political and symbolic damage can be even harder to remedy than financial losses.

With information from Morning Brew and Agência Brasil*