Salvador Illa has overcome all the obstacles that separated him from the presidency of the Generalitat and, after making the pact with ERC and Comuns official and gaining an absolute majority in his favour, the only thing missing for his investiture is to materialise it in a plenary session. But Junts is determined not to make things so easy for him and, even, to use the probable return of Carles Puigdemont as the last resort to try to postpone, or even prevent, the parliamentary debate. And, if that were not possible, the objective is to charge ERC the highest price for its support of Illa, even accusing them of being responsible for his arrest.
“What will Illa do if Puigdemont is arrested during his investiture debate?” Laura Borràs asked on Monday before the microphones of Catalunya Ràdio. A question that her party wants to make the leitmotiv of this week in which the Parliament is preparing for the investiture of Salvador Illa.
Junts believes that Puigdemont’s return and his probable arrest and even imprisonment could hinder Illa’s investiture, either for logistical reasons, such as the Parliament choosing to suspend the plenary session, or for political reasons, that is, ERC backing out or the PSOE and PSC understanding that the legislature in Congress could be in danger.
Puigdemont has repeatedly promised to return to Catalonia if an investiture debate is held, the last time last Saturday, in a harsh letter in which he blamed the ERC rank and file for his possible arrest. The Republicans’ response was furious on Monday, calling Puigdemont’s words “shameful and offensive”, accusing him of “stirring up hatred and division within the independence movement” and demanding an apology from him for not respecting the decision of the ERC members.
But Puigdemont’s willingness to present himself as a human shield to prevent Illa’s investiture seems immovable. His plans, in concrete terms, are kept secret, but his party does not hide that the former president’s intention is to return to Catalonia now, that is, before he has been amnestied. And the expected scenario is that he will be arrested, which according to Junts’ account would demonstrate that the judges do not obey Congress and, therefore, that they are committing a kind of judicial coup d’état.
Options in the event of an arrest
The parliamentary calendar, as it is set out without taking into account the Puigdemont factor, begins this Tuesday with the round of consultations between the president of the Parliament, Josep Rull, and the political groups. At midday, Rull is expected to appear to announce that he is proposing Salvador Illa as a candidate for the presidency and also the date on which he will meet the permanent deputation. Sources from the president’s office assure that a day later, that is, on Wednesday, is the most logical date.
The permanent deputation comes into play since it is the supreme body of the Chamber in the periods between sessions, such as the current one. In this miniature Parliament, PSC, ERC and Comuns have the same majority as in the plenary session, which is why they will be able to set when they want the investiture debate. The supporters of Illa’s investiture have no reason to want to delay this first debate, so they could call it for the same Thursday, although they could also end up choosing to wait.
In either scenario, the fear of these parliamentary forces is that Puigdemont could time his arrest with the date of the first plenary session. If this happens, the parliamentary majority could demand a suspension of the debate, as could a majority of the board (PSC, ERC and Comuns have a majority). But there are legal doubts about whether the president can decide this at his discretion. And, above all, for how long he can keep the plenary session suspended in such a situation. Even more so when Puigdemont could delegate the vote, according to the latest reform of the Parliament.
The House’s rules stipulate, however, that once the presidential candidate has intervened to defend his investiture, the speaker of the Parliament can decide to suspend the plenary session for no more than 24 hours. It is also foreseen that if there is no majority in a first vote, a second vote would be held in 48 hours, where the candidate would only need a simple majority. Both things would be within parliamentary normality, but a possible arrest of Puigdemont could disrupt these plans.
Denounce the non-compliance with the amnesty
Carles Puigdemont could continue to avoid arrest, as he has done for the past seven years, if he chose not to enter Spain. By choosing to appear before the Parliament now, he is not waiting to exhaust the legal channels to enforce the amnesty law that he himself drafted. Although the law declares embezzlement crimes amnestiable, the Supreme Court understands that this is not the case in his case, so appeals are now possible and, ultimately, a ruling by the Constitutional Court and even by the European courts.
All those involved in the approval of that law were aware that, no matter how carefully they drafted it, the judiciary would have ways to delay the application of the amnesty. That is precisely what is happening in the case of Puigdemont and all those prosecuted and convicted in the procés case.
However, Puigdemont’s intention is, he says, to denounce the non-compliance with the amnesty law. “In Spain, amnesties do not amnesty,” he wrote last Saturday, “there are judges willing to disobey the law” and “the Spanish Government looks on indifferently, making more fuss when a judge indicts the president’s wife than when the Supreme Court refuses to apply the only law that has been approved this term.”
The complaint about the failure to comply with the amnesty is therefore not only a message for Catalan politics, but can also be read as a warning to Moncloa. With the Generalitat lost to the PSC and the amnesty law already approved, Puigdemont and his followers could turn against the government they have supported until now, which would put the legislature at risk.
Source: www.eldiario.es
