Oil shoots, powers condemn and the world sees the Middle East on the brink of collapse; The price of hegemony can be worldwide stability itself
On June 13, 2025, the world woke up to a new chapter of violence and confrontation in the Middle East. This time, it was Israel that launched a surprise military attack on Iran, reaching more than one hundred strategic targets-including military facilities, nuclear centers and key figures of the Iranian government. A unilateral and unsuccessful act, performed on the eve of nuclear negotiations between Iran and the United States, again placing the region on the edge of a regional war.
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The pretext? Another round of Israeli obsession with the Iranian nuclear program. Although Iran is a signatory to the Nuclear Non -Proliferation Treaty (TNP) and maintain under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (there is an uranium enrichment for peaceful purposes, Tel Aviv insists on treating any nuclear development as an existential threat. A hypocrite stance, considering that Israel has maintained an undeclared nuclear arsenal and refuses to sign it. International Treaty to which so much requires from others.
This attack is not an isolated event. It is part of a continuous strategy of destabilization, sabotage and selective murders sponsored by Israel in recent years. And, as always, the United States watches from cabin – or rather, participate in behind the scenes. US authorities had prior knowledge of the operation, and even former President Donald Trump even publicly praised the action. This while the Biden government tries to maintain a neutral façade in the face of a conflict that can easily climb beyond the Middle East borders.
Israel, increasingly guided by an ultranational and expansionist government, seeks to impose its hegemony in the region, including at the expense of another regional power that resists submission: Iran. With US tacit support, Tel Aviv has been trying for decades to weaken the Islamic State through sanctions, direct attacks and misinformation campaigns. But now, it seems to have crossed a dangerous line, risking not only its own security, but also dragging the US to a conflict whose consequences are unpredictable.
Iran’s response was quick and blunt. Within hours after the Israeli attack, ballistic missiles and drones hit several Israeli cities, including Tel Aviv and Haifa. An unprecedented level of retaliation in the recent history of the region. Far from shaking the Iranian regime, aggression seems to have reinforced its determination and internal unity. And far from ensuring strategic victory, Israel finds himself facing a dilemma: without total US support, he cannot achieve his goals to dismantle the Iranian nuclear program or promote a regime change.
The risks are very high. The US has over 90,000 soldiers throughout the Middle East, many of them in vulnerable positions in the face of Iranian missiles. A larger conflict could lead to the closure of the Ormuz Strait, interrupting the flow of oil and triggering a global economic crisis. In addition, Iran has strategic regional and international allies, such as Russia and China, increasing the chances of geopolitical climbing.
Behind this new Israeli offensive, there is a historical narrative that needs to be revisited. Since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, Iran has been treated by the US and its allies as an enemy number one of the imperialist order in the region. US foreign policy has always sought to create counterweights to contain independent governments such as the Iranian. Supporting Iraq during the Iran-Iran War, undergoing double containment in the 1990s, to the current maximum pressure on Tehran, the goal remains clear: to prevent any country from affirming their sovereignty outside Western control.
And what about the role of the US? Under different administrations, republicans or democrats, Washington has been an accomplice of these policies of aggression. Whether through armaments, financing or diplomatic coverage, the US supports a regime that acts with impunity, bombing civilians in Gaza, invading neighboring territories and now threatening global stability. All this while making empty speeches about peace and security.
If Netanyahu expects this climb to force the US to directly assume the war against Iran, it may be making a catastrophic strategic error. Trump’s electoral base and the “Maga” movement resist new military involvement abroad. And Biden faces increasing domestic and international pressures against another imperialist adventure in the Middle East.
The scenario that is designed is uncertain. It can evolve into a prolonged low -level war, where Iran resists and Israel suffers accumulative damage. It can pull the US into a conflict that no one wants, but some powerful insist on provoking. Or, in the worst case, it can trigger a regional war that becomes a global conflict.
In fact, the greatest loser of this move can be Israel itself. Its image of invincible power has already been shaken. Your deterioration doctrine is in check. And his dream of absolute hegemony in the region seems increasingly distant. Meanwhile, Iran demonstrates resilience and response capacity, consolidating itself as a resistance block that does not bow to foreign pressure.
It’s time to rethink US foreign policy and Israel’s role in the Middle East. War is not a solution. Dialogue, cooperation and respect for national sovereignty must prevail. But while the military-industrial complex and hegemonic interests continue to dictate the compass, peace will follow distant-and the whole world will pay the price.
With information from Sami al-Aian, for Middle East Eye*
Source: https://www.ocafezinho.com/2025/06/19/israel-tenta-humilhar-o-ira-e-pode-cair-de-joelhos/
