This week, the American consumer price index (CPI) on several fronts was higher than expected. At first glance, the rise in inflation seems like a problem, because it is putting interest rates of the US central bank on the long track. However, those who zoom in on the data will see that there may be a different explanation.
No worries about inflation?
In principle, it is never a good development for the market if inflation rises aggressively. Certainly not at a time when the US Central Bank could also come up with interest rates.
However, due to the new rise in the CPI, the chance of new interest rates has fallen considerably.
But why inflation increased? This seems in particular the result of an increase in the prices of goods. In principle, that was not a big surprise, because the majority of imports revolve around goods.
And in recent weeks the total import has risen in the United States, which of course is unmistakably the result of Donald Trump’s policy.
He has been threatening for some time with all kinds of import duties and has started a trade war. It seems that we get a distorted picture of inflation. At least, that is at least a possible explanation for the rise in inflation.
Bad for Bitcoin
In the short term, this is in any case a bad development for Bitcoin. Because the market has come to the conclusion that we can write interest rates on our stomach in 2025.
For the rest of the year, the market now sees a chance of approximately one meager interest rate reduction. If that interest rate reduction is already coming, it should come in December according to the market.
In that respect it is still being patient, but it is also possible that the whole thing turns completely, and we will have lower inflation again in a few months. That would be the case if it turned out that Trump is purely driven by Trump.
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Source: https://newsbit.nl/is-de-stijging-van-de-inflatie-gevaarlijk-voor-bitcoin/
