O International Monetary Fund (IMF) updated its expectations for China’s economic growth in 2024raising the projection of 4,6% in April for 5%, as revealed in its latest Global Economic Outlook.
The revision was driven by a robust recovery in private consumption and strong exports seen in the first quarter of the year.
The organization kept its global growth forecast for 2024 stable in 3,2%, highlighting that emerging market economies of Asiaespecially China e Indiacontinue to be the main drivers of global economic growth.
The IMF’s chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchasemphasized that these economies are responsible for almost half of global growth.
World trade volume is expected to grow 3,1% em 2024 e 3,4% em 2025slightly above previous estimates, driven mainly by robust Asian exports, especially in the technology sector.
During a press conference in Beijing, the IMF’s first deputy managing director, Gita Gopinathannounced the review following the conclusion of the Consultation of the Article IV of 2024 with the team of FMI in China.
In addition, the update of the WOW pointed out that the global disinflation process is losing momentum, increasing the possibility of maintaining high interest rates for a prolonged period due to increased trade tensions and political uncertainties.
Gourinchas also expressed concern about the fiscal policy of USApointing to the increasing risk arising from high debt-to-GDP ratio and dependence on short-term financing.
He warned of possible adverse repercussions for emerging and developing economies due to the impact on the appreciation of the dollar and tighter lending conditions globally.
Source: https://www.ocafezinho.com/2024/07/17/fmi-tambem-eleva-projecao-de-crescimento-economico-da-china-em-2024/
