How long will the Bitcoin price continue to fall?

If popular analyst Benjamin Cowen is to be believed, Bitcoin could remain bearish until the end of 2024. A real positive market reversal could take until the Fed cuts rates by at least 0.75%, according to Cowen.

Rate cuts to start in September

For now, the expectation is that the US central bank will begin the cycle of rate cuts in September.

For the September 18 rate meeting, the market now expects a 0.25% cut with a 67.5% probability and a 0.50% cut with a 32.5% probability.

According to Benjamin Cowen, Bitcoin would need a 0.50% drop to enter the second part of the bull market faster. Not everyone will agree on that.

In most cases, a 0.50% cut by the US central bank would mean that they are worried about the health of the economy, which is the last thing a Bitcoin bull market needs.

When will Bitcoin turn bullish?

There is one scenario in which Bitcoin’s bearish price action could end before 2025, according to Benjamin Cowen. In that case, the Federal Reserve would have to cut rates sooner, he argues. He calls this the optimistic scenario.

The only question is why they would do that. Of course, it could be that inflation falls a bit faster than expected, while the economy remains healthy. In that scenario, it could happen that the Fed lowers rates a bit faster, but the chances of that seem slim.

“I would say the base case is that we break the bearish pattern by the end of the year. Last cycle, we needed 0.75% of rate cuts to break the structure. There’s a good chance the Federal Reserve will need a few meetings to do that.

It could take until the end of the year, so you could see Bitcoin price increases again in January 2025,” said Benjamin Cowen.

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