Here’s Why Kamala Harris Could Defeat Donald Trump

In the ever-changing landscape of American politics, 2024 is shaping up to be a year of extraordinary significance once again. US President Joe Biden’s exit from the presidential campaign means that Vice President Kamala Harris is poised to take on the role of Democratic presidential candidate, a terrain fraught with challenges but also potential.

While polls suggest a daunting challenge lies ahead, with Harris trailing former President Donald Trump by 1.5 points as of late last week, her path to victory is not entirely sealed. Through a combination of strategic positioning and a resonant message, she could still emerge victorious.

In 2020, Harris’s first presidential campaign never got off the ground. Instead, it was marked by internal disarray and a seeming inability to connect with voters, particularly the party’s progressive wing. Critics singled out her inconsistent messaging and lack of prime-time preparedness. Memories of certain performances remain vivid, along with her failure to defend her record as California’s attorney general.

But every job comes with a learning curve. It seems intellectually dishonest to say that 3 1/2 years as the nation’s No. 2 hasn’t shaped Harris, a well-educated and accomplished woman, into a more well-rounded politician.

Pessimists will argue that his tenure does not support this argument. However, it should not be forgotten that the vice presidency is not designed to stand out or even step out of the shadow of the president. The gap between the role of vice president and his responsibilities has always been vast. Nelson Rockefeller, when asked about his duties as vice president, replied, “I go to funerals. I go to earthquakes.”

Harris will now step into the spotlight, which should be an upgrade over Biden and thus improve Democrats’ chances of keeping Trump out of the Oval Office. Updated polls for the battleground states have not yet been released, but Trump has led most of them comfortably by 5–7 points. Polls are not destiny, however. The fluidity of public opinion, especially in the volatile environment of an election year, means these numbers will change — especially since it’s a new day in Washington.

Trump’s team has focused its resources and strategy on Biden, crafting multiple angles of attack, focusing on the president’s age, alleged dementia, controversies involving his son and allegations of corruption.

While there is a rudimentary contingency plan for Harris somewhere in the drawer, the MAGA world will now have to scramble for a new strategy. But time is of the essence. Trump’s unparalleled ability to smear his opponents is well documented, but Harris presents a unique challenge for his campaign.

For example, America didn’t want a rematch between Biden and Trump. Now, a new alternative is emerging, one that doesn’t have the deep-rooted vulnerabilities that years of scrutiny have revealed in Biden and that were frankly irreversible, like his age and his lackluster public appearances.

In effect, the age issue has been reversed, with Trump now the oldest candidate in history, immediately introducing a stark contrast between past and future for the general public.

Biden’s inability to sell his success and vision for America doesn’t apply to Harris either. A former lawyer and skilled prosecutor, she will be able to appear regularly in public, hold impromptu press conferences, and communicate compelling ideas to the American people, explaining how they will make a difference.

The communications skill set, lacking under Biden, will be a particular asset when it comes to the crucial issue of abortion. The US Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v Wade has ignited a fierce national debate, with states enacting draconian laws.

Two years after the decision, reproductive rights have been lost in several states, 14 of which have stopped nearly all abortion services. Trump, whose campaign caters to the anti-abortion crowd, made this possible by appointing three justices to the Supreme Court.

Trump struggled with female voters in 2020. In addition to the sexual misconduct allegations, championing anti-abortion values ​​will make things even harder for him this time around.

In contrast, Harris’s stance on reproductive rights and her advocacy for women’s issues will resonate with female voters. As a staunch defender of Roe v. Wade and women’s health, Harris can position herself as a protector of women’s rights. She is likely to seek to codify Roe v. Wade as president.

Another advantage Harris has is her ability to mobilize young and minority voters. As the first woman of color on a major party’s presidential ticket, she can bring a perspective and representation that Biden has failed to fully encapsulate.

Discontent that has begun to emerge, particularly among younger and more diverse voters, toward Biden could be eased by Harris. In addition, swing states like Georgia, Arizona and Pennsylvania are becoming increasingly diverse and may respond more positively to his candidacy.

Make no mistake, Harris faces a formidable challenge as she seeks to become the next president of the United States. The current political climate, with its deep polarization and economic uncertainty, favors Trump.

But in this dynamic and unpredictable theater that is American politics, Harris’s unique attributes — a seasoned politician with renewed appeal, a champion of women and minorities, and a symbol of progress — may well prevail over Trump’s message of uncompromising populism and threats of retaliation. For America’s sake, let’s hope so.

By Thomas O. Fal, a journalist and political analyst who writes about German, British and American politics.