Great Cryptogokker based on historic interest rate reduction next week

The American labor market is slipping in the wrong direction at lightning speed. This makes it almost inevitable that the central bank will lower interest rate next week. Where it was first doubted whether there would be an intervention, the discussion now mainly revolves around the question: is this perhaps a historic interest rate reduction?

In any case, in Crypto prediction platform Polymarket dares to put on one of the biggest players.

226,000 dollars win on the table

It is about Justwakingup who is known as the most successful trader of the blockchain -based gambling platform. He had been running nearly $ 400 million in volume and managed to achieve more than 2 million dollars.

Now he has used $ 15,000 on an interest rate reduction of 50 basic points, or 0.50 percentage point, next week. If the Federal Reserve (read: US Central Bank) indeed opts for such a rare procedure, it will earn more than 226,000 dollars profit.

In its entire existence, the Fed has only opted for such a drastic measure. This was almost always in times of crisis, such as the Dotcom-crash in 2001, the credit crisis of 2007-2008 or the COVID-19 Pandemie in 2020. Last September it was done as a precaution.

We cannot immediately call this moment a crisis, but there is no longer any question of a purely preventive procedure. Job growth is clearly delayed and unemployment is at the highest point in almost four years.

On Polymarket, 82 percent of all traders expect an interest rate reduction of 25 basic points and 14 percent think of 50 basic points.

Data from CME Group shows a similar picture. 91.8 percent expect 25 basic points and 8.2 percent double.

Strikingly enough, the large British bank Standard Chartered joins Justwakingup. Yesterday you could read that the analysts raised their expectations from 25 to 50 basic points.

The bank calls the Jacket Report of Augustus the reason: only 22,000 jobs were added, while economists counted on 75,000. A month earlier, the figures also came in much lower.

According to the bank, the American labor market “from solid to weak” has gone and a “catch -up” by the FED is needed.

Largest job correction ever strengthened worries

In addition, the biggest correction ever came in the American labor market yesterday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) adjusted the figures for April 2024 to March 2025 down with 911,000 jobs.

That means that on average 76,000 jobs have been created per month than expected. Last month, 285,000 jobs were already removed from the figures, making it even the first negative month since the pandemic.

Lower interest rates are good news for Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto, because liquidity (the money supply) increases. Borrowing money becomes cheaper, and therefore more attractive. But the economy should not deteriorate too quickly, because a recession would cause a capital flight.