Goldman Sachs: US recession more likely

If we are to believe the analysts at Goldman Sachs, the chance of a recession in the United States has increased considerably. The analysts at the large American investment bank base this on, among other things, the poor unemployment data of the past month.

Chance of a recession 25%

The chance of a recession in the United States ultimately remains small according to the figures from Goldman Sachs. According to Goldman Sachs, there is now a 25% chance of a recession before the end of 2024.

Earlier, the chance of that scenario was estimated at 15% by the analysts of the investment bank. The year is not very long anymore. After all, we are already in August. In that respect, a 25% chance of a recession can be called quite high.

For now, the US economy seems pretty solid and quite a bit would have to happen to be able to speak of a recession. For example, the US economy is still growing at a healthy pace.

The labor market (and inflation) are cooling down, but not nearly enough to be able to speak of a recession. Although we should not forget that a recession often comes out of nowhere. Often, nothing seems to be wrong and then suddenly unemployment shoots up.

That is a scenario that people seem to be taking into account more strongly at the moment, including at Goldman Sachs.

What does that mean for Bitcoin?

In the short term, a recession would not be good for the Bitcoin price. A recession generally means that unemployment skyrockets and therefore people have to start saving (investing less) or even selling assets to make ends meet.

In that respect, a short-term recession is often not good for risk assets like stocks and Bitcoin. So we have to hope that Goldman Sachs 25% doesn’t materialize, because if there is a recession in 2024, Bitcoin’s bull market is probably over.

A data point that supports Goldman Sachs’ analysis is the number of bankruptcies in the United States. Data provider Epiq AACER reveals that the number of bankruptcies in America has increased from 35,727 to 44,427 in July 2023 last month.

So there does indeed seem to be some pressure on the US economy and it is important to keep a finger on the macroeconomic pulse in the coming weeks and months.

Win VIP tickets for the Dutch GP with OKX

Want to enter the crypto world and maybe buy Bitcoin or another crypto? Then grab your chance now! Thanks to an exclusive collaboration between Newsbit and OKX, you as a reader will receive a unique offer.

Create an account at OKX now via the button below and receive a welcome gift of no less than €50, completely free. On top of that, you will also receive a free McLaren cap (worth €30+) delivered to your home!

But that’s not all – you can also win great prizes, including a VIP Trackside Experience at the Dutch Grand Prix!* Don’t miss out on this opportunity and register today!

Please note: terms and conditions apply to this promotion.