WTO warns that global goods trade should shrink 0.2% by 2025, with North America being harshly hit by new tariffs
The volume of global goods trade is expected to fall 0.2% by 2025 under current tariff conditions, almost 3 percentage points below the previous forecast based on a “low rate,” the World Trade Organization (WTO) in its latest Global Trade Statistics report on Wednesday (16).
The WTO also warned of the serious negative risks imposed by the restoration of US “reciprocal tariffs” and the dissemination of uncertainty in trade policy, which could lead to an even more pronounced decline of 1.5% in global goods trade by 2025.
The WTO observed major regional disparities regarding the impact on trade in goods by recent tariff measures in force since April 14.
North America is expected to see a “particularly accentuated” decline in the trade of goods, with exports expected to fall 12.6%, according to the WTO.
Meanwhile, Asia is expected to record modest commercial growth, with exports and imports expected to grow 1.6%. Europe should record a 1.0% increase in exports and 1.9% in imports.
The WTO has stated that the trade in services, which is not directly subject to tariffs, should also be negatively affected. The volume of global service trade is expected to grow 4.0% by 2025, about 1 percentage point less than expected.
The WTO pointed out that the last forecast marks a “reversal” compared to 2024, when the volume of world trade in goods grew 2.9%, while Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded 2.8%.
The large number of new tariffs introduced since January this year led the WTO to lower its prediction of commercial growth to 2025, which had been positive earlier this year.
With information from news agencies*
Source: https://www.ocafezinho.com/2025/04/16/comercio-global-recua-diante-das-tarifas-de-trump/
