“Gaza” is the word Democrats are afraid of in Chicago

If there were a taboo subject among Chicago Democrats, “Gaza” would be the perfect example: Don’t mention the war. Isolated dissidents have had their Palestinian flags removed; a hijab-clad protester was silenced by chants of “We love Joe” and hit with a Biden sign after interrupting the president’s speech; permitted demonstrations are quarantined, away from the public. Even raising the most controversial issue in U.S. foreign policy is a risky business.

Still, silence is the prudent choice for Kamala Harris. As Biden’s vice president, Harris cannot openly oppose her boss. The last time this dilemma arose was in 1968, when Hubert Humphrey, Lyndon Johnson’s number two and the Democratic nominee, wavered over whether to call for an end to the bombing of North Vietnam. His indecision contributed to his election defeat.

For Harris, the equivalent would be to threaten an arms embargo on Israel if it doesn’t accept a cease-fire. That would undermine Biden, who last week approved another $20 billion arms package for Israel. Even if Biden were to encourage Harris to take a tougher stance on Israel, silence would still be her best campaign strategy.

A clear stance on either side would cost Harris support. Defending the status quo would further alienate progressives, including the 100,000 who voted “no compromise” to Biden in the Michigan primary earlier this year. Harris’s White House chances hinge on victories in swing states like Michigan, where a few thousand votes could make a difference.

On the other hand, threatening to use U.S. influence over Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, could backfire. Harris has already alienated some Jewish-American voters by not picking Josh Shapiro, the Pennsylvania governor, as her running mate. The choice was almost certainly motivated by Shapiro’s ambitions to win the White House. No president wants a vice president who is impatient for his job. Her pick, Tim Walz, reportedly has no presidential aspirations.

In any case, Harris has been the subject of rumors that she left Shapiro out because of his more pro-Israel leanings, or even because he is Jewish. Shapiro refuted Donald Trump’s claim that Harris left him out because he is Jewish, stating that Trump is “the least trustworthy person when it comes to hate, bigotry, and certainly anti-Semitism.” Pennsylvania has a large Jewish population and is crucial to Harris’s chances of winning.

The downside of Harris’s silence is that both sides have room to imagine the worst about her. While Democrats are celebrating the buzz surrounding their new spokesperson, the US’s global reputation is suffering incalculable damage. Images of Gaza are reminiscent of Warsaw in 1945 or Grozny in 1999. No one who sees the devastated territory would believe that Israel engaged in anything like precision bombing. “Indiscriminate” would not be quite right. Israel’s destruction of Gaza looks more like a deliberate policy to teach the Palestinians a collective lesson, mostly using American weapons.

That Biden is being celebrated as a great president in Chicago is partly a function of Democratic guilt. The party forced him out with uncharacteristic cruelty. Praising him on his way out is a way to ease the conscience. But praise for Biden risks veering into hyperbole. His record in the Middle East is poor, and predates the Hamas massacre of October 7 last year.

He has not followed through on his promise to rejoin the Iran nuclear deal, from which Trump withdrew the US in 2018. Biden’s excessive caution was driven by fear of the pro-Netanyahu lobby in Israel, which has always seen the Iran deal as appeasement. This set the template for his response to October 7. Whenever Netanyahu has challenged Biden, he has caved. A Martian observer might conclude that Israel calls the shots in the relationship between the two countries. On the rare occasions when Biden has hinted that he might use US power to restrain Israel, he has backed down.

This week, Biden is trying again to pressure Netanyahu into a ceasefire. His effort seems as futile as the previous ones. Hopefully, Harris will get through the next 10 weeks without a broader war in the Middle East. If she defeats Trump in November, we’ll find out what she really thinks. Harris has already hinted that she is far more bothered by the death toll in Gaza than Biden.

The only issue Harris should be speaking out on is the fate of the Palestinians if Trump wins. He has no interest in their plight. Nor should it be a mystery where anti-Semitism is most threatening in America. The anti-Zionist left can chant childish slogans about liberating Palestine “from the river to the sea.” But as Chicago shows, they are barely part of the Democratic tent. Meanwhile, Trump dines with Holocaust deniers at Mar-a-Lago. That’s not complicated.

By Edward Luce, U.S. national editor and columnist for the Financial Times.