Five black swans that could disrupt the financial markets in 2026

According to analysts at BCA Research, there is a good chance that financial markets will again be confronted with so-called black swans this year: events that seem unlikely, but could have a huge impact. In a recent analysis, the research agency selected five scenarios that could seriously disrupt markets in 2026.

1. An oil shock from Iran

BCA sees the greatest risk as a possible disruption of the oil supply from Iran. If the regime there destabilizes, a significant part of the global oil supply could be at risk. The researchers estimate the chance of a major oil shock at 38 percent. Such a shock would significantly increase oil prices, fuel inflation and push the global economy towards recession.

2. China surprises again with technological breakthrough

A repeat of the so-called DeepSeek moment poses a second risk. If China manages to surprise the United States with a technological leap, for example in the field of artificial intelligence (AI), it could lead to a sharp correction on stock markets. BCA even sees a 50 percent chance that the current tech bubble will burst this year.

3. Escalation around Taiwan

BCA considers the risk of an escalation between China and Taiwan to be real. The chance of tensions rising is estimated at 39 percent, while the chance of a proxy war is around 25 percent. A large-scale military conflict remains less likely, but would have enormous consequences for trade, chips and financial markets.

4. Russia becomes embroiled in war with NATO

An even more extreme outcome is a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO. BCA estimates the chance of this at 10 percent. According to the report, Russian sabotage actions in Europe and further escalation around Ukraine increase the risk of miscalculations.

5. NATO is losing cohesion because of the US

Finally, BCA warns against a scenario in which the United States limits its support to NATO allies. Should Russia attack a NATO country without an American response, the alliance would effectively lose its meaning. Tensions surrounding Greenland and Donald Trump’s policy also play a role in this. BCA estimates the chance that the US will weaken NATO in some way at 30 percent.