Fall in the left takes Bolivia to the unprecedented dispute at the polls

For the first time since 2009, Bolivia will have a second presidential round, after collapse of the left and historical fall of the but in the elections

Bolivia will live an unprecedented moment in its recent political history. For the first time since the creation of the second round system in 2009, voters will have to return to the polls to choose the country’s next president. The election, held on Sunday (17), was marked by the economic crisis, the weakening of the left and the end of a cycle of almost two decades of hegemony of the movement to socialism (MAS), a party founded by former President Evo Morales.

On October 19, Senator Rodrigo Paz Pereira of the Christian Democratic Party will face former President Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga of the Livre Alliance. Both were the most voted in this election, but did not reach the percentages necessary to win in the first round.

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According to preliminary results released by the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE), with over 90% of the ballot boxes, Peace won 1,561,000 votes, equivalent to 32.08%. Quiroga was in second place, with 1,311,000 votes (26.94%).

Following, businessman Samuel Doria Medina appeared, who led some research and ended with 19.93%, and Andron Senator Rodríguez, the main name of the left in this dispute, which obtained only 8.15%. But, which for years was the dominant force of the Bolivian political scenario, performed was considered disastrous: it was sixth, with only 3.14% of the votes.

Popular participation was expressive: 78.55% of the 7.5 million registered voters attended the polls, according to the TSE.

A duel of distinct profiles

Rodrigo Paz presents himself as a representative of a new political generation, with a center speech and promise of renewal. His opponent, Jorge Quiroga, brings the weight of the experience: he was interim president between 2001 and 2002 and is identified with the conservative right, more linked to traditional sectors of politics and economics.

The clash between the two, however, goes far beyond a personal dispute. It symbolizes the deepest change of the Bolivian political scenario in almost 20 years. Since Evo Morales’s victory in 2005, the country had been governed by presidents linked to the MAS, which consolidated a broad popular base, especially between indigenous and workers sectors. This time, however, the caption arrives weakened and divided, unable to maintain the electoral leadership.

The rules of the game and the historical novelty

The Bolivian Constitution defines that a candidate could win in the first round if he earns more than 50% of valid votes or, alternatively, by obtaining at least 40% with a ten percentage point advantage over second place. Since none of the postulants reached this level, the second round became inevitable.

Since this mechanism was introduced in 2009, all previous elections had been decided in the first round, with comfortable left wins linked to MAS. The result of Sunday breaks this pattern and makes room for a historic turn in the country.

The decline of Evo Morales’s force

The defeat of the but is considered a symbolic milestone. The acronym, which for years was the protagonist of Bolivian politics, now bitter an irrelevant position in the electoral scenario. Divided internally and without the same mobilization capacity, the party failed to consolidate itself as a viable alternative in this dispute.

The performance short of the expected reinforces the perception that the cycle started in 2005 with Evo Morales has come to an end. What is drawn from now on is a new political chapter for Bolivia, in which the center and right -wing forces will have unprecedented protagonism.

What is at stake

With the open dispute between peace and chiroga, the next two months promise to be intense. Both will have to look for alliances, especially between the voters of Doria Medina and Rodríguez, to ensure victory in October. The future president, whatever, will have the challenge of dealing with a fragile economy, high rates of popular dissatisfaction and the need to rebuild confidence in a political system marked by polarizations and ruptures.

Regardless of the winner, the 2025 election has already entered Bolivia’s history: it marks the end of the left supremacy and inaugurates a new stage of uncertainty and possibilities for the Andean country.

The next day challenge

Regardless of those who come victorious in the second round on October 19, the next Bolivian president will have a country in the economic and political field before him in the field. Bolivian society expressed at the polls not only rejection of the MAS, but also a clear desire for structural changes. The high rate of null votes, added to the low performance of leftist candidates, highlights the disenchantment of a significant portion of the population with the direction of national policy.

Rodrigo Paz and Jorge Quiroga, each in his own way, will need to dialogue with this unbelieving electorate. Peace bets on the idea of ​​renewal and a more pragmatic speech that tries to move away from radicalism. Already chiroga, with his most tough experience and rhetoric against MAS, faces the challenge of being able to rule beyond the conservative sectors that support him.

The alliances at stake

The second round should be marked by an intense dispute for support. Both Peace and Quiroga will have to seek agreements with the candidates defeated in the first round and their electoral bases. Samuel Doria Medina, for example, with her nearly 20% of the votes, emerges as a key piece for the definition of the result. Andronics Rodríguez, although with modest performance, can also influence by directing votes that still remain loyal to the political project of the MAS.

However, the fragmentation of the left and the call of Evo Morales by null vote leave doubts about the real capacity of these sectors of consolidating themselves as bargaining force in the second round.

A Country in Crossroads

Bolivia comes to this election in a moment of profound uncertainty. The economic crisis erodes social stability, causes protests and exposes the fragility of the institutions. With high inflation, fuel shortages and difficulties in access to foreign currencies, the next government will have to adopt hard measures and at the same time find political backing in a fragmented congress.

At the same time, the fall of the but makes room for a complete reconfiguration of the political board. For the first time in almost two decades, Bolivia is preparing to be ruled by a left -aligned project. This can redefine not only domestic priorities, but also the country’s foreign policy, which for years has been linked to anti-imperialist discourse and approaching progressive governments in the region.

The symbolism of the turn

The second round between peace and chiroga therefore carries a historical weight. More than the choice between two candidates, it symbolizes the closure of a cycle that began with the rise of Evo Morales in 2005 and remained alive for almost 20 years. The result of the claim will be decisive to indicate whether Bolivia will enter a path of moderate renewal or choose a more conservative turn, with profound impacts on the country’s political and social life.

What is at stake in October is not only Bolivia’s immediate future, but the redefinition of its political identity after two decades of left dominance. The country thus experiences the expectation of a new chapter of its history, loaded with challenges, uncertainties and the promise of change.

With information from BBC*