Europe resists US pressure on China

Experts point out that Europe will not fall into Trump’s trap and maintain commercial ties with both China and the United States

As relations between the US and China deteriorate, the European Union is in danger of sighting. And any attempt by President Donald Trump to force the EU to choose between the two countries probably not succeed, experts told Newsweek. Initially, Trump proposed a wide increase in tariffs on all business partners, with China being the most affected. It would suspend most of what it called “reciprocal” tariffs, including 20% ​​EU, maintaining the base of 10% for all countries. But with China, he would engage in reciprocal increases with President Xi Jinping, which culminated in 245% of most Chinese products.

Although tariff increases seem to have been interrupted for now, the US is attacking China through other business partners.

But Kyle Haynes, assistant professor at the Department of Political Science at Purdue University, said in Newsweek That although the Trump government was “trying to force Europe to choose between the US and China,” it did not expect Europe to adhere to.

Still, while Europe ponders the reliability of Elon Musk’s broadband company, Starlink, Brendan Carr, chairman of the Federal Communications Commission, told the Financial Times that European allies need to choose from US and China satellite internet technology.

“If you are worried about Starlink, wait for the CCP [Partido Comunista Chinês] Act, then you will be really worried, ”he said.

He added that Europe was “stuck” between Washington and Beijing and that there could be a “great division” between those who align with China and those who do not align.

“If Europe has its own constellation satellites, great. I think the more, the better. But, more broadly, I think Europe is a little divided between the US and China. And it’s time to choose,” he said.

‘This gives more power to Europe’

Wall Street Journal recently reported that Washington would use tariff negotiations with more than 70 countries to limit their trade with China.

“The EU trade with China is almost as high as its US trade, and Trump’s retreat in tariffs last week will probably signal to European leaders that he has no stomach for a truly global trade war,” said Kyle Haynes. “Europe has the advantage of being in a kind of ‘central’ position here. It currently has better relationships with both China and the US than the US and China with each other.”

“This gives Europe more influence on the exploitation of the current US and China trade war, or at least allows her to better take care of her own commercial interests while Washington and Beijing fight her own friction war.”

But Kyle Haynes believes that “EU knows Trump is not a reliable negotiation partner” and will try to “minimize the damage Trump can cause to transatlantic relations while waiting for him to leave office.”

“Burning bridges with XI, however, may have longer implications for Europe, given the success he has ever achieved in the consolidation of power in China. Europe is highly interdependent from both the US and China, and European leaders rightly see all this dispute as a purposeful choice of Trump, not from Xi.

“I would expect Europe to refuse to make the choice that Trump is demanding. Trump could then fulfill some of his threats. But his behavior so far suggests a willingness to quickly retreat when disastrous economic consequences become clear.”

“It’s a foolishness for any European to sign”

Rosemary Foot, senior professor and researcher at the Department of Policy and International Relations at Oxford University, said in Newsweek That “it is difficult to be sure about anything these days, given the uncertainties and capricious nature of US policy formulation.”

She added that the notion that Europe would be forced to choose between the two countries “leaves much room for the idea of ​​an agency of the European Union or any recognition of its great importance as a commercial block.”

She added: “With US positions changing almost daily, it would be foolish for any European to join such a polarized position in trade relations between China and the USA.”

Although it is unlikely that the US will create a division between China and EU, Max Bergmann, director of the Europa, Russian and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told CNBC that he was unlikely that EU and China unite against the US. ”

“The potential for economic alignment between EU and China is limited, as both are export -oriented economies and therefore fierce competitors, especially in the automotive and clean technology sectors,” said Bergmann.

EU and China have a historically turbulent commercial relationship, marked by mutual investigations and retaliatory measures. The EU, for example, accused China of unjust subsidies in sectors such as electric vehicles and steel, which led to its own imposition of tariffs on electric vehicles.

Meanwhile, US tariffs are also generating worries in Europe that China can redirect trade to the EU, reducing prices and making it difficult to competition from bloc manufacturers.

“We cannot absorb the excess of global capacity nor will we accept dumping in our market,” said Ursula Von Der Leyen, president of the European Commission, when Trump’s tariffs came into force.

With information from Newsweek*