The so-called Coinbase premium for Ethereum has fallen to the lowest level in ten months. This indicates that demand from American investors, including institutional parties, is declining for the time being. The price of Ethereum therefore remains stuck around $ 3,100 and has not yet managed to make a clear breakout upwards.
The development raises questions about the strength of the current recovery in the crypto market, especially now that Bitcoin is also struggling to maintain momentum.
What is the Coinbase bounty?
The Coinbase premium measures the price difference of Ethereum between the American exchange Coinbase and international platforms such as Binance.
When Ethereum is more expensive on Coinbase, it usually indicates additional buying pressure from the United States. That is relevant because:
- US institutional investors often trade through Coinbase
- ETFs and major brokers use Coinbase as a trading and custody party
- price discovery on Coinbase often coincides with institutional interest
A declining or negative premium usually means that this group is less actively buying or even selling.
Back to early 2025 levels
According to data from CryptoQuant, the premium has fallen back to levels last seen in February 2025. The difference was already small in recent months, but has now almost disappeared.
This happens at a time when Ethereum is unable to rise above important resistance levels. Since the peak around $4,700 earlier in the cycle, the Ethereum price has fallen back and has been moving sideways below $3,300 for weeks.
The disappearance of the Coinbase premium suggests that US buyers will wait and see for now. This applies not only to private investors, but also to larger parties such as funds and ETF providers.
At the same time, trading on international stock exchanges remains relatively active. There is still a lot of volume to be seen on Binance in particular, and according to on-chain data, non-American ‘whales’ are slowly building up Ethereum positions. However, that international demand is not strong enough to push the price up independently.
Derivatives and sentiment remain subdued
Caution is also visible on the derivatives market. Open interest in Ethereum futures has fallen to around $17.8 billion following recent liquidations. This means that traders use fewer leverage positions and reduce risks.
The Ethereum Fear & Greed Index is around neutral 49 points. That indicates doubt: there is no panic, but also no conviction. Moreover, many investors and strikers are still sitting on unrealized losses. They don’t seem to be selling en masse, but they aren’t buying aggressively either.
Can Ethereum still break out?
In the longer term, the fundamentals remain largely intact. Staking continues, DeFi activity continues to grow, and Ethereum retains its role as the main liquidity layer in the crypto market. However, the network is facing increasing competition from Solana, among others.
One factor seems to be decisive for a real outbreak: renewed purchasing desire from the United States. Until that happens, Ethereum will likely remain trapped in a sideways bandwidth.
Something similar applies to Bitcoin. There too it is visible that without a clear American inflow it is difficult to maintain new highs. The movements of Ethereum and Bitcoin therefore remain closely linked.
Source: https://newsbit.nl/ethereum-mist-amerikaanse-koopdruk-coinbase-premie-op-dieptepunt/
