A sensation of Leave VúI already lived from this, I already heard it, moreover, I know how it ends. Among other things because it was what happened until 15 days or a couple of weeks and ended very badly.
Because, let’s see, what ended last Friday, that is, the previous one when the government announced the new flotation band of the official dollar was the expression of a resounding failure of the scheme of Javier Milei and “Toto” Caputo.
It is important to highlight this because on Monday, on Tuesday and this short week, before the “moderate” movement of the dollar, voices that said: “Well, you have to see if you don’t have to recognize that the government did some things right, if this can somehow work and once again circulated that question that is, at this point, it is almost a profession of faith: what if it works?
Well, it didn’t work and it won’t work. First more general definition: when a government (anywhere in the world) is going to ask for the spittock to the IMF is because it failed. Here or in China (although China, some things today can be made difficult because it is in the center of the most important geopolitical dispute that is internationally). When that country is the most indebted in the world with the organism by far, that failure is double or triple.
When the fund imposes a change in politics and forcing to throw with all the promises that the government had been doing (not devalue, etc.) the defeat is greater. And when that change hits the heart of your electoral promise that had been fulfilling relatively and with artificial methods, that failure is huge.
Because Leave Vú? Because well with the mountain of dollars that the government received from the fund they relaunch the same road map that went to nothing to end in collapse: artificially ironed dollar (which favors the leak, worsens the commercial balance) does not close the exit tap because the one that left all the dollars (from the laundering, of the commercial surplus); With high interest rates that boost the, at this famous height, carry trade (Dollars that come, are weighed for a while, win with the interest rate and dollarize when the scheme runs out and help their exhaustion).
Many times in the political analysis I am surprised that events are interpreted exactly the other way around how they really are (well, every interpretation is political). Then it was said that the armor in dollars and the political support (with the coming of the secretary of the US Treasury) was a sign of a “triumph” of the government, when, in reality, the dimension of the economic-political support revealed that it was so close to sink, that its scheme not only fails, but rather vuele through the air.
And at this point a geopolitical dimension enters: both for the IMF and for the US, Argentina is important because it is among the governments of the world that are 100 % alienated and repeats that they will apply a program like those that the Monetary Fund always asks for and more. If this fails badly, the scenario is uncertain because we come from two experiences (that of the Pro and the Front of all) that were widely rejected, then a scenario can be opened for new proposals oppose the radicality of Milei, an inverse radicality. Therefore, it is very dangerous to “let it fail”, but it is also difficult to “save it” with the same recipes that always led to the sinking, although at first they come with some fresh funds. That is the paradox or the problem they have.
In that same dimension, that Argentina has become important for the US, to adopt compromise size to this adventurers’ clique, talks about the US hegemony crisis (which is expressed in Trump’s delusional fluctuations) of the weight loss of the empire in the world and not the increase in the importance of Argentina in the interest of interests of the Yankees.
But, in addition, I say Leave Vú From what happened in the recent history of the country. Look at whom I am going to cite to graph this: to Carlos Rodríguez. Yes, Menemist official, former Minister of Economy, founder of Universidad del CEMA (Ultraneoliberal). Yesterday he posted in X the following: “In Argentina, every time he assumes a pro-market government, an important capital entry occurs. The exchange rate goes to a floor that is not compatible with a diversified capitalist economy. He passed with Martínez de Hoz, happened with convertibility, passed with Macri and now passes with libertarians (laundering and carry trade). In the first three experiences the same thing happened. Damocles sword of the plan and an unstoppable social disgust was generated. The field and industry become opponents of the government, or at least stop supporting it as they did at the beginning of the plan. To that are added the guilds that always oppose any government that is not populist. Finally, the government, weakened, falls or is not reelected (Viola, de la Rúa, Macri) ”.
To this we must add that the ironed dollar is a “political dollar” (intervened by a state orientation), appreciated to serve again as an anchor of inflation and as a support of a new speculative party. A kind of new artificial stability, a laboratory with which they seek to improve the electoral chances of the ruling party.
Then Carlos Rodríguez himself says that this is to blame for “the lack of labor flexibility and an imperfect capital market for having very weak property rights.” Obviously, a very liberal, capitalist exit that always considers that the problem is the rights of workers.
The issue is that the fund thinks similar because, in addition to the accumulation goals of reservations, a pension reform, a tax reform and a tributary again. Because they believe that what was done was fine, but it was little; The fiscal adjustment was necessary, but not enough. Another symbol that the fund does not come to congratulate what was done, but that it comes to finance what is missing and that they consider that it is the most important.
Returning to Leave Vú: The point is that the story is repeated the same. It comes from an experience of a year and a half of the adjustment that – supposedly – was going to end all the adjustments (such as the wars that were always summoned to “end all wars”). After the adjustment it offers more adjustment with increasingly wide sectors that do not want to lose more (we saw it in the general strike or in the claims of the drivers of the UTA, or of the guilds that claim joint and. Inflation never finished domain, now more inflation and general deterioration are added, more general deterioration. The government is joining a broad social front against it. The question is whether all that force for the routine rhythms of electoral policy (“there are 2027”) that has already been proven helpless or a proposal to defeat it will be used again.
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