The most serious political analysis on the elections in the city of Buenos Aires coincide in two or three conclusions that are in view of all:
First, the most prominent fact was the abstention of almost half of the people who were in a position to vote (there were 53 % assistance, nothing more). There is a debate about foreigners who are incorporated into the city stands (around 600 thousand) that, in general, have low participation and that in the elections to national legislators may not be registered (and therefore shrink the mass of the register and enlarge participation), but even if that data is not taken into account, the decrease in participation was very important. In addition, the elections in CABA replicated a pattern of behavior that we had already seen in advanced elections other provinces (Chaco, Salta, Santa Fe) that had had low participation.
This fact, together with the percentage of votes that Manuel Adorni took out (30%), relativizes the triumph because the number is low in itself (it is what Milei took out in the generals of 2023), but if the set of the register is taken into account, it is 15 or 16%. That is, 85 % of Buenos Aires or Buenos Aires in a position to vote, did not support the government.
Third, there was a sensitive displacement in the configuration of class of the social base that supported Milei. If in 2023, it was a transversely more homogeneous vote (among the poorest and richest sectors, to simplify); Now the center of social gravity concentrated on the upper and high middle class, and had less support in the popular or poorest sectors. That is why he lost in many neighborhoods in the south of the city.
Now, many analyzes say – with some reason – that you have to measure what was achieved by the government based on the objectives that had been set, what did the government want? Well, first, I sought to win in general, but even more than win the general choice, to succeed over the PRO to define who stayed with the right -wing leadership. Designed in terms of strict partisan competition, he achieved his goals.
Because in the government they think, and some say it openly, that they are not interested in being “hegemonic”, this is sedimenting a more or less consistent majority that supports their program and their ideas and that their particular interest becomes universal. They are considered “post-hegemonics” and that can reign in a world in which disintegration and segmentation (social and political) arrives to stay. They believe that with a strong minority, they are triumphing over the other minorities (in this case on macrismo) until the dominant minority becomes. And as they are messianic they believe that from there they have to drive (for good or bad) to the whole society towards the market society model that they defend and that they consider the only valid.
That is why immediately after the triumph they went out with a battery of ads that seek to consolidate their hard core: a decree to ban strikes; a harder repression of retirees; the closure of organisms as part of the “cultural battle” with a review of history and memory; Attacks to journalism or “money laundering” for the use of dollars.
Perfect, perhaps with that right -wing populist logic they can have tactical successes, but not strategic triumphs.
Because for more of them they believe that they changed forever the rules that govern the policy (the macristas thought the same at the time), the laws of the movement of society, of the economy, of politics, do not change radically simply because they announce it.
In fact, in this election, it was expressed that it is a project that is not expansive, except for the most wealthy sectors. Moreover, a part of society (and of the most affected sectors) is placing it as part of “La Casta” because it turned its back, as to much of the political system.
During this year and a half since he won the elections, in many occasions I affirmed that Milei was more expression of the crisis than a solution to the crisis (of the political crisis or the crisis of representation) and now there are analysts who say that this discomfort that was expressed in 2023 may continue and now manifests by other means.
In addition, Milei achieved this result within the framework of a huge support of the IMF and the US government, a political corporation that voted all or almost everything, a union leadership that dosed the force measures and so far continues to negotiate with the government despite the end of the end of the right to strike; Almost all aligned business and communication tanks in their favor.
It also had another advantage: the municipal and depoliticized campaign of Peronism. The attempt of a soft, municipal campaign, dodging the bulge of Peronism, deep down, plays in favor of the government.
I do not want to enter this space in theoretical disquisitions about hegemony or non -hegemony (an eye seems to me an important debate, in fact I wrote a book about that), what is certain is that the results of the six elections that there were so far and especially that of the city of Buenos Aires, allowed him to succeed in the field of the dispute of the “small politics”, but they did not give him the capacity and consistency for the historical tasks. That is, the great reforms that say they will face after the elections.
In fact, today there is a great social opposition to the plan with a multiplicity of conflicts with axis in the salary, ranging from Jujuy (Ledesma) to Tierra del Fuego, passing through the province of Buenos Aires, where Axel Kicillof faced a blunt teaching strike against the parity agreement of misery he had agreed with Roberto Baradel (10% in three installments). The “new songs” sound similar to those of Milei in the salary field. Road workers were mobilized, air controllers stop state.
They can believe that they can reign in the post-hegemonic era; that with a minority sect can be imposed and “tame” the rest of society, but reality shows a very different panorama. A great social opposition to the libertarian project is being configured so that it is necessary to build a true new political force opposed by the vertex to its ideas and their policies. That is, an exit by left.
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