The Black Thursday of the Government in the Senate in which it was defeated by a win (six projects were approved against it and with broad majorities) was nothing more than a catalyst of several parallel crises. Let us remember: we are talking about the projects of a lean increase in retirement and pensions, extension of the moratorium also for retirement, the help to Bahía Blanca that turned a veto and the co -participation of taxes.
The parallel crises were: the financial crisis that had been manifested in the JP Morgan investment bank report that called to withdraw from carry trade Already “take a respite” of Argentina and in the risk ratingrifier Morgan Stanley who refused to improve the qualification of Argentina in terms of financial trust. They were also expressing in the overheating of the dollar that, far from falling “like a piano” as Milei had assured in February this year (and reaching $ 600) touched the $ 1300 and with more thrust after the session of the Senate. It also had an expression in breach of the goals accumulation of reserves required by the agreement with IMF.
All consequences of a scheme that is based on maintaining an artificially ironed dollar (based on rented dollars) which is what contains the secret of the famous deflation. That scheme was making waters everywhere. To the point that we were attending a new bullish trend of prices that continue until today (PXQ).
Then was the most structural economic crisis that shows a party consumption, with a minority that takes advantage of this rate of exchange (traveling or buying abroad) and a majority that juggled to reach the end of the month, increasingly indebted, etc. Several industries are in bankruptcy due to the indiscriminate opening of the economy that already begins to have consequences and no structural indicator accounts for a genuine recovery of the economy. The famous Rigi (regime for large investments) which is basically exorbitant benefits for companies (especially mining or oil multinationals) did not bring (with exceptions) truly relevant projects so far.
Third, the social crisis also shows a panorama with increasingly dismissals (such as Georgalos or Secco) and a general impoverishment of the population, in addition to the continuity or worsening of the precarious conditions of life in general. Both in terms of housing, transport or education or health services. The totality of the reports, such as the recent Interdisciplinary Institute of Political Economy that depends on the Faculty of Economic Sciences of the UBA, show that wages are still in decline between the private and informal sector and even more among the state. All this was expressing conflicts that here were widely covered by Augusto Dorado.
Finally, the political crisis. This is closely linked to the above: the limits, the enclosure, the roof of the economic scheme led to greater confrontations of the government with the allies who accompanied it so far and also to the resurgence of its own inmates.
Is it understood? The interpretation is not correct that ensures that in the economy things more or less were working and that the “uninforced errors” in the political field ruined everything. Well, no: the economic crisis led to political errors (already this political crisis) and the political crisis, now, now, the economic crisis. In a very dangerous dynamic for the government and for the entire political system in general.
Let’s give an example, the fiscal surplus (what the government presents as one of its greatest achievements): it was achieved, among other things, to keep the funds of the provinces (in addition to health, education, etc.) budgets. Then, the governors who are always willing to collaborate, played during all this time a species hunger games with the hope of making them provide funds if they were the first and those who bowed the most before Milei. Well, Milei says that the surplus is not negotiable, he gave them nothing, because – while liberating taxes to all capital – he can only sustain the surplus if he does not grant anything to them. If we add to this the messianism and political arrogance (which characterizes all governments when they win and believe eternal owners of popular support) we have the background explanation of the “rebellion of the governors” that led to the defeat of the Senate. But, in addition, “text and context” said someone out there: they also perceive that the weather is already another and that Milei has some problems.
Now, the governors are desperate to negotiate and may want amend This offensive. You have to see if the government wants and can. But beyond that, the fact already happened. The government suffered a frightful defeat that contributes to the wear of its authority. Because if you, at the kicks and screams, you will achieve results, well, it is a matter. Now, if in the economy (beyond the disinflation that begins to see side B and the surplus that is seen that it is at the expense of retirees and even disabled) no major results are perceived, and politically they fill your face of fingers, you begin to distrust the effectiveness of trying to order things to the kicks and the screams against everyone.
Around this issue, a more general reflection: it has been repeated many times that in this era of weak or impossible hegemonies, the instruments that serve to gain elections, then are not useful to govern. Whether they are the great coalitions that are so wide that they include all programs, that is, they have none, but they are used at the time of the choice to reject the other or, as is this case, the messianic leaderships that manage to “capture” a moment of anger, of crisis and frustrations, with agite and magical solutions, and also used to punish, but then have no results. In love with its instruments (ironed dollar and “cultural battle”) Milei wants to repeat the formula with which he triumphed in 2023, but two years after being governing and with “the fish without selling”. Let’s see, they all collaborated with you: from the IMF to the governors; From the US to a large part of the media system and the great entrepreneurs bank. Federico Sturzenegger made and undid at will thanks to the delegated powers, and? We remain the same or worse as before.
I do not know if he is crazy, but (as attributed to Albert Einstein, “madness is doing the same over and over again and expecting different results”), in that strict sense, he is crazy.
Beyond the governors, of the deputies or senators panqueques, the interesting thing is that a crisis was opened that, like any crisis, can represent an opportunity: the opportunity to defeat this liberticidal plan and bet on an exit of the lockers, the workers and the popular majorities.
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