29 times that the president, Javier Mileihe said by national chain that “fiscal balance“It is unnegotiable, they were not enough to reassure the expectations of the country’s owners. The exchange and financial crisis is precipitated while the government decided to thoroughly accelerate in the curves.
This Thursday the Central Bank ended up liquidating U $ S 379 million In a single day to try to contain, without success, the price of the dollar inside the exchange band. The retail dollar broke the $ 1,500 barrier while sinking the bonds and shares and the country risk a 1,453 points. The result of this debacle did not matter, nor the 2018 lessons, Luis Caputo He said he will use until the last dollar to contain it inside the band. For connoisseurs, it is a signal to “the markets” that they leave now, before downloading the costs about popular majorities.
The accumulation of political defeats of the Milei Government in recent weeks, where the street and its demands take center stage, are the trigger for a serious debt crisis and an unsustainable economic program. He IMF rescue To the government in April of this year and the two disbursements for US $ 14,000 million generated the illusion, for a very short time, that it was possible to sustain a backward dollar and thereby limit the rise in inflation. He International organism loan role To the Milei government was to grant a gestural and material survival (fresh dollars) to an exhausted economic model, with which they aimed to “reach” to the October elections.
But the alchemy required for it did not support a fissure. In his own DNA a devaluation was registered Because the model undefectibly led to a reserve exhaustion. On the one hand, for the reduction of the commercial balance. Even if there are high exports, the generated currencies are lost because the dollar under stimulates imports. This in turn has enormous consequences in the loss of competitiveness of the already backward and devastated local productive and industrial apparatus. Secondly, for net departures in tourism and real services. And thirdly, because historical memory is infallible and in this country it is not necessary to be an economist to know that if the dollar is contained, for more rates of real positive interest of 75% in pesos, the only savings or investment that is worth covering with the dollar. In Creole: “Buy, champion.”
Who rushed in this DISASSEMBLY OF POSITIONS IN PESOS They were, of course, the financial speculators and large entrepreneurs. If it was not enough with the uncertainty generated after the government hastened to disarm the Lefi in mid -July, they finished convincing themselves with the JP Morgan’s start signal and then with the political defeat at the polls in PBA on September 7.
“The same, but faster”
September 18, but from the year 2001the country risk touched the 1,618 basic points, experiencing a rapid climb from the 1,000 points of early July, in the previous elections of October of October. Almost year later I would be playing the historical maximum peak of 7,222 points. Of course, this was only the expression of One of the most brutal crises and acute that the Argentine working people crossed, with a poverty index above 50 % and an unemployment that affected 1 in 5 workers.
The story will not necessarily be repeated, or in the same way. But the patterns are similar to those of the economic crisis of Martínez de Hoz (Economic Minister of the Military Dictatorship) in December 1980, the departure of convertibility in 2001, the devaluation of August 2019 with Macri and Dujovne.
He exchange delay It is supported by indebtedness and financial bicycle (short -term capital entry to the financial system) until the expectation of devaluation is increased, external financing is cut (or international markets are closed) and the withdrawal of capitals leaves land razed. The departure offered by capitalist parties has been a devaluation again and again that is discharged on wages, retirements and popular sectors, have consumption and credit and causes an economic recession. The ravages are unrecoverable. Of each crisis, never returns to the previous situation.
Although the “stock” is only raised for the purchase of dollars by human people for treasure, there are many Capital escape and earning dollarization routes Of the large companies facilitated by banks and the privatization of foreign trade: the use of intermediaries for dollar purchases, the dollar counted with liquidation, the currency application for the cancellation of private debts with companies of the same group, the subfacturing of exports, the advance and superfacturing of imports, among others.
To this is added the Currency and Resources Sangria of the country for interest payments and public debt capital. Between January and July 2025, the net exits of dollars for debt interest payments (public and private) were U $ S 5,332 millionaccording to the Central Bank exchange balance.
For the Government, and also for the opposition, the public “commitments” with international financial capital are not in question, even if their origin was totally spurious (debts that crawl from the genocidal dictatorship, exchanges and restructuring that validate them, fraudulent debts to guarantee private businesses, financing of capital escape, etc). He “commitment”To guarantee the population work, health, education and a full life is always in the background.
With the promise of open tap of dollars by Caputo, The currency leak will do nothing but accelerate. Milei will end up doing the same as Macri (and that Menem, and that Martínez de Hoz), but faster. The country’s embezzlement in the name of freedom.
To put a brake on the loss of dollars (generated by the daily work of millions of people), which are a basis for monetary and pricing stability (low inflation) It is essential to cut their output routes. Banks are a cornerstone and therefore their nationalization and management by the workers themselves through a Unique State BankIt would allow to prevent millions of dollars from being fed under its operation.
So, the Foreign trade control For a few companies that concentrate exports and imports, which also control private ports and have the mastery of much of the dollars generated, it is another way of escape. The Argentine experience shows that a state monopoly of foreign trade is possible, such as IAPI, but it is its management in the hands of workers that would allow to cut with the bleeding of dollars and guarantee that imports and exports be administered based on the social and productive development of the country.
Milei and his economic team let them transcend that they have an ace under their sleeves to get dollars. That there could be a direct loan from the United States Treasury, or a credit line of an international organism. Or that they will advance rapidly in the Sale of public companies As his Menu of Options showed this week (AYSA, Argentine Nucleoelectric, thermal centrals, road concessions and massive sale of public land), for which they must twist a very unfavorable relationship of forces in the current conditions of political weakness. “Coincidentally”, when public assets are on the floor, a gift. Nothing very likely, and even to get some dollars, they will go through the aforementioned windows.
2027 is a distant future
When the crisis appears, the old method of “blaming people”, or more precisely, popular workers and sectors. Either because “he voted badly” (to one side, or to another), either because “he demanded too much” in the streets (or as Macri said, “they want to live above their possibilities”), or because “I could not wait” for the adjustment to give up its fruits.
However, Milei applied the course demanded by the great business and the IMFand with which practically the entire political arch agreed, beyond differences in deadlines or implementation: pay the debt, adjust public spending at the request of the fund, lift the “stocks”, lower taxes to large capital and raise them to workers, reform labor and pension laws to reduce the costs of businessmen, among others.
No political sector, except the left, proposes get out of the regime imposed by the IMFwhich has these guidelines inscribed. The responsibility against this new clash of Calesita is of economic power and the servile political class to him that directs this process. The question is what will happen now and how the catastrophe is avoided.
Within the options Transitional (until October) To solve the lack of dollars, there are two that stand out. One, is the possibility of a dollar devaluation. That is, let out the central bank of its obligation to contain it inside the band and thus let it run, which would have two variations: a certain control or discretionary purchases or under a pre -established program, or allow an abrupt jump and then re -fix the exchange rate to encourage another “carry” (financial bicycle), at a level they suggest would be around $ 2,300. Another possibility is Return to the exchange ratealthough consulting firm 1816 considers that it is the least probable option.
According to the calculations of this consultant, The net reservations of the Central Bank (without subtracting the IMF loan) they are around US $ 6,428 million.
But the Dollar scarcity Today to sustain the exchange rate, it is not only the problem (liquidity) that looks “markets”, but there is also a solvency problem: the growing impossibility of addressing external debt matches
Between September 2025 and December 2027 BCRA dollars and treasure matches total 34,000 millionwithout paying for former IMF (which are supposed to be renewed), the same consultant 1816 estimates. Already in February 2016 the net reserves would become negative because of these disbursements.
In what remains of 2025 dollars in dollars total $ 2.3 billion, in 2026 about $ 12,800 million and in 2027 about US $ 19,000 million. They are extraordinary and overwhelming sums of growth, impossible to face.
The governor of the province of Buenos Aires, Axel Kicillof, recently raised in an interview that a break with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). What is the alternative program? Is it possible to improve living conditions and at the same time pay the IMF and debt creditors? We already live it with the experience of Alberto Fernández that together with Guzmán and Massa, they chose not to face economic power but to govern for him; Under a co -government with the IMF that fired inflation at 300% per year and generated the conditions for the emergence of Javier Milei’s neoliberter government.
One has to turn about. Instead that the lives of millions of workers depend on the decisions of “the markets” and a handful of irresponsible that favor great capital, it is the millions of workers who can decide and impose another course for the country. You can’t wait for 2027 while in agony A catastrophe about workers is created.
It is necessary imponer from below, organized and on the streets, an exit program typical of workers, in rupture with the IMF and the payment of the illegitimate external debt, and nationalizing banks and foreign trade, fundamental springs to avoid capital escape and market blows.
Source: www.laizquierdadiario.com
