Distrust operated on the market: the dollar bonds collapsed up to 6% and in the last 5 days they accumulate 12% falls. Speculators do not look good at the government’s payment ability: the country risk, which the JP Morgan estimates, is above 1200 points.
As for the sharing market, the S&P Merval in dollars fell to a minimum of 13 months. In Wall Street, the actions of Argentine companies were down, contrary to an upward trend that operated in the New York Stock Exchange. The casualties were led by macro banks (-3.2%); Supervielle (-2.9%) and BBVA (-2.8%).
But the greatest tremor was in the dollar shot. The retailer was $ 1480 in the banks, while in the wholesaler was only $ 6 pesos from the band, this being considered to enable the intervention of the BCRA. On the other hand, the CCL dollar came to exceed $ 1500, after knowing the government measure of putting an “stock” to brokers for the purchase of financial dollars after Friday’s hot day. In the same vein, the “crypto dollar” is above $ 1500.
The price of the currency is reheated to an obvious weakness of the government, the shortage of dollars. Minister Caputo had been intervening via the treasure to contain the dollar: it is estimated that in the week prior to Buenos Aires elections, the sale of more than US $ 500 million was executed to contain exchange volatility. It also had been intervening in the futures market, where speculators already avizo the devaluation: the post -national post -elections of October are located above the exchange band.
Wholesale dollar closes at $ 1,467 (+0.96%), at $ 5 from the band’s roof.
Futures all flying.
The BCRA does not operate in futures to win $ (neither to lose), but to mold expectations with its credibility (this is the credibility) .- pic.twitter.com/TwAoXc7YY4– Christian Buteler (@cbuteler) September 15, 2025
For this Monday, treasure reserves are already estimated at US $ 1100 million, but in the coming months it must pay $ 800 million for interest to the IMF in November and US $ 200 million to the Paris Club in the coming days. That is, the Treasury Fire Power seems exhausted.
The agreement with the IMF indicates that the Central Bank is “obliged” to intervene in the currency market once it touches the band’s roof. According to calculations from the Province Bank, the BCRA has 25,000 million liquid reserves, with at least USD 14,000 million to sell in the market. “This fire power is relevant: between 2003 and 2025, the maximum sales for 34 business days – that is, the days between September 7 and October 26 – were USD 9,000 million between April and May 2018,” says a Bapro report.
The debt model
The problem arises in a model that does not generate dollars, rather the opposite, with a constant currency bleeding added to a growing snowball.
According to the last exchange balance of the BCRA, in the first seven months of 2025, of the account in which the arrival of investments is recorded, foreign direct investment, in net terms almost USD 1,370 million came out.
In terms of debt, according to the latest report by the Ministry of Finance, despite payments, the debt rose from the equivalent of US $ 447,202 million in July to US $ 454,230 million, more than US $ 7000 million. But how much was paid?
During the eighth month of the year, the Government made public debt payments for a total equivalent to US $ 20,444 million, of which 85% was carried out in national currency and 15% in foreign currency. Of that total, US $ 19,570 million were allocated to the payment of capital and US $ 874 million to the payment of interest.
This Monday the BCRA reserves fell at US $ 400 million for the payment to the Inter -American Development Bank (IDB) and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (BIRF) for US $ 271 million YU $ 112 million, respectively, as official sources gave transcend.
But in Caputo’s financial engineering, in these interest payments are not counted an instrument used by the minister to draw the accounts, capitalizable bonds. The Government argues that the adjustment is guaranteeing that there is financial surplus (more income than expenditures for the set of state operations), an affirmation that can only be sustained using a method that invisible capitalizable interests.
These bonds such as LECAP, instead of paying their owners a monthly amount for interest, adds that rate to the total price of the bonus that must be paid by the State at maturity. Specifically, treasure is not paying interest month by month, but is generating an exponential debt ball. How much is that debt? It already accumulates more than US $ 49,000 million so far this year.
The IMF setting and the government is unsustainable
The IMF made it clear: the priority is the fiscal adjustment and prepare the land to reform labor laws, retirements and taxes. That was the only thing Milei said in his national chain speech: adjustment to guarantee zero deficit.
The economic plan to follow its course until the last consequences, to try to guarantee the payment of an illegitimate and fraudulent debt, that mortgage the present and the future of millions. The concentrated capital, however, distrusts each day more of the viability of the adjustment and moves the market to the rhythm of its own interest ..
They seek that the working people pay the cost, but the fight is not resolved. Faced with the crisis, the alternative is to organize from below, to reject the pact with the IMF making a sovereign ignorance of the external debt and fight for an exit that prioritizes the needs of the majorities and not the businesses of a few. This Wednesday is a great appointment to throw down the vetoes to education and health, next to the fight of retirees and throw down the entire Milei adjustment plan.
Source: www.laizquierdadiario.com
