Dollar oscillates and scholarship retreats after announcement of the new IOF

Ibovespa closed down after agreement that replaces the increase in IOF with new taxes, generating tension in the financial and real estate sectors

The dollar and the Brazilian Stock Exchange had a day of ups and downs on Monday (9), influenced by the announcement of the agreement between the federal government and Congress to replace the increase in IOF with other tax measures. The US currency closed down 0.14%, quoted at $ 5.56, after reaching $ 5.60 during the trading session. Ibovespa, the main index of B3, retreated 0.30%, ending the day by 135,699 points, after falling more than 1.46% at the beginning of the session.

Volatility was driven by the dissemination of new tax measures announced by Finance Minister Fernando Haddad on Sunday night (8/6). The package provides for the taxation of financial instruments previously exempt from income tax, such as LCI, LCA, CRI, CRA and debentures, which generated negative reactions in the financial and real estate sectors.

Lack of spending cuts worries investors

Alexsandro Nishimura, economist at Nomos, stressed that the market reacted with skepticism to the absence of structural fiscal adjustment measures. “The government has lost another chance to present a minimally structuring fiscal plan. The replacement of the increase in IOF with short -term collections does not respond to the main criticism of the market, which is the lack of spending cuts.”he said.

Arthur Barbosa, from Aware Investments, reinforced the concern with the sustainability of public accounts. “The measures remain concentrated in increasing revenue, without advances in the control of expenses. This intensifies doubts about compliance with the 2025 tax target”he said. This Monday’s Focus Bulletin already projects a primary deficit of -0.60% of GDP, above the tolerance limit of -0.25%.

Banking and real estate sector among the most affected

The proposal to tax investments previously exempt investments especially impacted banks and real estate companies, which led the falls at Ibovespa. Only a few actions, such as Gerdau, have registered high, driven by positive recommendations from international analysts.

In the external scenario, attention turned to negotiations between USA and China, which have not yet resulted in concrete advances. In addition, signs of slowdown in the Chinese economy have pressured iron ore prices, limiting a possible appreciation of the real.

Perspectives for the next few days

With the frustration of the market regarding the lack of a more robust fiscal plan, analysts do not rule out that the Central Bank can reconsider new increases in the Selic rate in the coming months, reversing the recent expectation of maintenance or falling interest rates.

Meanwhile, investors are still aware of political developments and negotiations in Congress, which can define the direction of the Brazilian economy in the coming months.

With information from metropolis*