Crypto whales make millions betting on Donald Trump’s victory

On the decentralized prediction market Polymarket, crypto whales – large investors who speculate on political outcomes – have made millions by betting on Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 US presidential election.

According to data sourced from Lookonchain, the largest Trump betting account, known as “Theo4,” made a profit of more than $20.4 million on its pro-Trump bets.

Won more large amounts

Other major investors also profited significantly. An anonymous whale, “Fredi9999,” earned more than $15.6 million, while “zxgngl” posted more than $11 million in profits. In October, ten whale accounts collectively spent a whopping $70.6 million on USD Coin (USDC) betting on a Trump victory.

On October 18, “Fredi9999” bought more than $20 million worth of “Yes” stock, raising Trump’s odds on Polymarket to over 60%. On October 28, the odds of a Trump victory rose to 66% when “zxgngl” invested another $7.22 million in “Yes” shares.

According to Polymarket, the payout will follow as soon as major news services such as the Associated Press, Fox and NBC declare the same candidate as the winner of the election. This happened at 10:46 UTC on November 6, when the Associated Press declared Trump the winner.

Potential payout of over $81 million

These developments could lead to a potential payout of more than $81 million for the investors involved, reports pseudonymous gambler Domer. He highlights that five major accounts together own nearly 50% of all Trump shares on Polymarket, with one account controlling nearly a third of the shares.

In contrast, Kamala Harris’ shares are much more widely spread. The 5 largest shareholders own only 18% of its “Yes” votes, with its largest shareholder owning only 4.4% of the shares.

Possibly 1 entity behind several major Trump bettors

Domer speculates that at least 4 of the top 6 Trump bettors, including “zxgngl” and “Fredi9999,” may be controlled by the same entity. This person would be very wealthy and increasingly convinced of a Trump victory as the odds increase.

Elon Musk added that decentralized prediction markets may be more accurate than traditional polls as investors demonstrate their confidence in an outcome with their own capital, which could provide an additional degree of certainty.