The reality of the Government beyond the polls. What the internal elections say and the strengthening of the SIDE. Editorial of “El Círculo Rojo”, a program of La Izquierda Diario that is broadcast every Thursday from 10 pm to 12 am on Radio Con Vos 89.9.

  • The Impressionists are neither good nor bad, they are simply incorrigible.
  • Who are the impressionists? Those who have a strong tendency to be struck by every new phenomenon that bursts onto the political scene and tend to think that it is already the expression of a change of era. Or those who take an element of reality and give it unlimited value as if that part were explaining the whole.
  • For example, in the case of Javier Milei’s government, that place is occupied by the polls. As in general, according to the different measurements, the results show that he maintains a support of around 50%, more or less half of the people, from which it can be inferred that it is a very strong political project and that there is no way to beat it. This is without analyzing much about what that support is based on, how intense it is, if it is a positive adhesion to the program and the ideas of the Government or if it is a “negative consensus” due to the rejection of all the above, etc.
  • This way of perceiving reality sometimes becomes somewhat “tragic” or directly a self-fulfilling prophecy because the reasoning is more or less the following: “The government is very strong, so there is no need to confront it because you have to have timing and knowing when the right moment is.” Or worse still, based on a similar thinking, it is believed that there is no other option than to collaborate with the Government to “improve” or limit as much as possible their projects. We could call this formula “the De Loredo theorem” because it is the way in which the radical deputy always acts: always and under any circumstances one must “go to the aid of the victor.”
  • Why do I say “tragic” or “self-fulfilling prophecy”? Well, because often, with that reasoning, a weak government is helped, not necessarily to become very strong, but less weak. And when that finally happens, thanks to their collaboration or inaction, they tell you: “You see, it wasn’t the right time, look at the government, it’s not that weak after all.”
  • I don’t know if you were able to listen to the podcast “Generation 94” which is basically about the history of the constitutional reform of 1994 promoted by Menem. There everyone says that Alfonsín believed that Menem was so strong that he was going to do the reform anyway, so he made the Pact of Olivos which allowed the reform (and, above all, the heart of the reform which was Menem’s reelection) to be born with more legitimacy, in exchange for some minor concessions requested by the radicals (such as the third senator per province, etc.).
  • It is the eternal discussion about the “correlations of force.” Because, even in adverse situations, does one have to fight or, without fighting any battle, strengthen the opponent’s victory? I think the choice is quite clear.
  • We experienced some of all that in these seven or eight months of Milei in power.
  • These days I spoke with the historian Pablo Gerchunoff (part of that exchange was published in The Daily from Uruguay) and he told me something I agree with: after seven or eight months, nothing definitive can be said about Milei’s government. He recalled that after seven or eight months of Menem in the Casa Rosada, there were rumors that he was negotiating with Eduardo Angeloz (the radical who had beaten him in the elections) because he could not govern alone. And look how it ended: a decade that regressively transformed Argentina like few had done before. The international context and the internal balance of forces helped him, let’s say everything.
  • Similarly, I say that after eight months, the polls do not say anything definitive about Milei’s government. After three consecutive failures, a whole lost decade (the last stage of Cristina Kirchner, the Mauricio Macri government and that of Alberto Fernández), these polls speak more of the old than the new.
  • This does not mean that there are not people who agree with Milei’s ideas. There are many, but I say that all this volume that is presented as support for a strong Government is much more contradictory.
  • What other elements demonstrate this? First of all, the internal affairs of the Government. It has already dismissed or expelled nearly 60 officials from the administration in this short period of time.
  • Now there is the internal conflict with Vice President Victoria Villarruel and the multi-million dollar strengthening of the intelligence services apparatus (SIDE).
  • It is known that Villarruel is a —let’s put it this way— different “sensitivity” in the LLA project: the favorite daughter of the military family (defender of genocides and the dictatorship), she has been struggling for years to, at the very least, bring the “military party” back to the table of the real power factors in Argentina; she also has a more nationalist profile and has made gestures of relative autonomy, the last one with the affair of the national team and its discriminatory chants, and the clash with France just before the president’s trip to the Olympic Games. It could be said that Villarruel has a more “Bolsonarist” project than Milei. However, the question is: Why is the internal conflict now exploding? Well, in addition to his ambitions for power, Villarruel perceives more strategic weakness in the Government than many opponents, which is why he stands out. If it were the Government “that the polls say”, he would not have a single vote. Yeah not one no with Milei. In addition, many see Macri’s hand behind Villarruel, another ally who is permanently distancing himself.
  • The SIDE case is simpler and more obvious: if they had so much support or were so “hegemonic”, why would they strengthen with such a huge sum – 100 billion pesos – an apparatus that is dedicated to spying on its own and on foreigners because it distrusts half the world? Tell me how much money you put into the SIDE and I will tell you how weak a government perceives itself.
  • Gerchunoff told me another interesting thing: he was not so worried about the people who support Milei (many of these people continue to bet on their own hope more than anything else or refuse to accept a new disappointment), he is more worried about the eventual resignation of those who oppose him. I think there is a point in this where fights like those of the tire union, where a strong fight is at stake, or emblematic conflicts like that of the Posadas Hospital, can play a decisive role.
  • These are fights that can set an example against the demoralization of those who speculate and use polls to avoid – paraphrasing Gramsci – the only thing that can be scientifically predicted: the fight.

    • Politics / Mauricio Macri / Posadas Hospital / Class struggle / Sutna / Javier Milei / Pablo Gerchunoff / Victoria Villarruel

    Source: www.laizquierdadiario.com



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