A driver of a mass consumption news program explains that “3 out of 10 Argentines spends more than you earn.” It depends on the expense level and which of the income, it could be said either that Argentines like to waste or maintain irrational consumption, or that the income level is so low that it is not reached at the end of the month and it is necessary to “borrow” to survive. In which of the two countries are we?
INDEC statistics showed unpublished growth in private consumption (very important component in GDP): +11.6% year -on -year in the first 2025 quarter against the same quarter of the previous year. Of course, at that time the collapse of consumption after devaluation and economic sinking were very large, which lowers the comparison base and could lose perspective. But beyond that, the level of the consumption indicator remains high in relation to the last years (5 points above the average of the 2013 record). The question persists, who is consuming? Where are those consumers? They are not seen in supermarkets, neither in shopping malls, nor in restaurants, nor in small trade.
Sales in supermarkets had much lower growth, of 2.9% year -on -year in the accumulated of the first quarter, also according to INDEC. According to CAME (Argentine Chamber of Medium Enterprises), retail sales effectively had a rebound in the first quarter, with interannual increases of 25.5% in January, 24% in February and 10.5% in March, but also highlighting that it is for the contrast with periods of much fall in consumption in 2024. Even now the Chamber expresses that in May the sales in SMEs receded 2.9% interannual.
The specialists agree on two key aspects: 1) Per capita consumption grew much less, 2) the import and tourism boom abroad by the dollar stepped (or low exchange rate). Which leads to a third conclusion: the averages deceive. There are sectors that can obtain advantages of the current scheme, and a majority sector that can barely reach the end of the month.
“Per capita consumption” (per person)
According to the CEPA economist Hernán Letcherby incorporating the population growth rate of 1.3%, consumption growth is diluted. “The result is 1.2% of increase in per capita consumption,” according to its social network. In turn, according to the calculation of Daniel Snewing (Founding) per capita consumption is still 1.9% below the 2013 record.
This means that although in the global there is an increase in private consumption, this does not mean that now all buy 11.6% more than a year ago, but per person would be the equivalent of 1.2% more. Now, is this increase distributed equitably, or are there sectors that consume more than others? What is being consumed?
“Cheap dollar”: tourism and purchases abroad
Private consumption as a component of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) that measures INDEC, takes into account the consumption of residents, no matter if it is locally or is abroad. Therefore, the important exit of dollars in the tourism account abroad, due to the low exchange rate in real terms, is also counted within this item. The same purchases abroad (for example, by Amazon), that is, imports (although in the final account of the GDP calculation are subtracted on the other hand).
And this is not a minor fact. The same INDEC report shows the phenomenal jump of imports, which went on to represent 32% of GDP, which would be the highest record in more than a century. They hit an interannual jump of 42.8% in the first quarter, while grewing 17.7% compared to the last quarter of last year. This has to do with the appreciation of weight, and the greatest commercial opening, together with the economic reactivation with respect to the sinking of last year.
Inequality is deepened
While middle and high sectors see consumption in dollars grow, consumption falls in pesos for the majority of the working class. Labor market data show an worsening indicators. As we pointed out last week, unemployment increased to 7.9% and touched the highest level in 4 years, especially affecting women and young people, along with an increase in precarious (unregistered) employment and work on their own.
Since Milei governs The salary of registered workers lost 6 points In March of this year against November 2023, the public sector being the most absorbed the coup. In particular, university, state and scientific. Tomorrow Thursday will be known the April wage index published by INDEC.
A private study of the consultant Mugshows that among those consulted, 50 percent do not reach the end of the month, 30 percent resigns expenses to pay services, 23 percent buy dollars and 11 percent buy abroad.
But if you only look at the poorest half (with lower income), 64 percent do not reach the end of the month and 45 resigns expenses. Only 6 Buy abroad and 11 buy dollars.
mercy y Caputo They build an economic “mirage” based on fierce indebtedness and the help of the Monetary Fund, which crystallizes the distribution of the regressive income of the last governments with Macri and Fernández. After a strong blow in 2024, the slowdown in inflation based on this scheme is not sufficient for a real recovery of income (pepped joints, roof retirements after the change of the mobility formula, fiscal adjustment). It only builds a tense calm waiting for the October electoral act to be held.
But accumulate a set of imbalances impossible to solve with the program with the IMF which implies deepening indebtedness and more labor, pension and tax counter -reforms against working majorities. Without the generation of genuine dollars, the model entails greater looting, extractivism, primarization and economic foreignization, along with an adjustment of expense in goods and services necessary for the most vulnerable sectors. The impact of the imminent devaluation Given the exhaustion of reserves, it can not only destroy the mirage, but to discharge with more force in a social sector that has no “more margin” for the adjustment.
Source: www.laizquierdadiario.com
