Consumption is still in free fall

In December, consumption in supermarkets fell 3.3% in the annual comparison and 0.3% compared to November. In the year, the fall was 11%.

Sales in supermarkets fell 11% in 2024 at constant prices, the Indec said. This is the data that most clearly shows the deterioration of the purchasing power of Argentine society last year, contrary to the government’s narrative that wages are increasing. In 2025, deterioration did not stop.

In particular, in December, sales fell 3.3% in the annual comparison, while in terms of seasonally adjusted, sales fell 0.3% compared to November, reflecting a slower consumption trend at the end of the year.

The decline in popular consumption did not slow down in early 2025. According to a report recently published by Scentia specialized consultancy, mass consumption plummeted 10.6% year by year in January. The data is eloquent because the fall occurred compared to Milei’s first full month of management, where consumption had already begun to fall. Last month, consumption in large networks was about 16% below January 2023.

Closing 2024

According to Indec, the performance of sales in December 2024 varied according to the region: in CABA and GBA, nominal growth was 100.5% and 90.8%, respectively, ie below the evolution of inflation. In provinces such as Chubut and Neuquén, the increases exceeded 117%, which allowed greater consumption stability.

The situation in the wholesale sector, which usually concentrates more sales in periods of crisis, was even worse. Sales in these self -service stores fell 15% in 2024 at constant prices. In December, the drop was 14.5% in the annual comparison and, in disorderly terms, there was a contraction of 13.2% compared to November.

At nominal level, revenues reached US $ 336,084.7 million, with an annual increase of 75.7%. However, when adjusted by inflation, the negotiated quantities were smaller than in 2023.

The sectors with higher annual increases in sales measures at current prices were clothing, footwear and textiles to home, with nominal increases of 179.7%, followed by electronics and home articles, with 117.9%and then drinks, with 93.6%.

Payment analysis reflects changes in purchase habits: Credit card was used in 27.5% of total sales (90.4% increase in annual comparison), while money in kind was used in 25.4% of purchases and debit card by 22%.

The Star Payment means was undoubtedly the mobile phone: digital payments (virtual wallets, QR, etc.) grew 133.6%, consolidating digitization in the wholesale sector.

Something doesn’t hit

As this newspaper has been arguing for several months, the government maintains that the wages registered in the private sector in real terms improved in relation to the moment of inauguration, in late 2023. However, this indicator is not consistent with consumer data.

“In theoretical terms, validating the official thesis would imply accepting that much of society is able to consume the same goods as November 2023 (milk, meat, yerba mate, consumer goods basket), but chooses not to do so,” the Argentine Center for Political Economy (strain) has argued for a few weeks.

“As we have argued, the cause of this divergence is another. The measurement of INDEC inflation, which deflates wages, does not represent the true consumption of Argentines because it underestimate the weight of services such as electricity, gas and transportation. The key is the considerations that, if updated with the Domestic Expenses Survey of the 2017-2018, would result in 8.5% more inflation since Milei took office, ”explains Julia Strada and Hernán Letcher of the strain. Little by little, this diagnosis is spreading to different opposition sectors.

Originally published by page 12 on 27/02/2025