Citigroup warns: Ethereum course can fall back to $ 2,200

Ethereum (ETH) fluctuates around $ 4,500 in recent days. A new price record is therefore in sight: less than ten percent rise is sufficient.

Yet the American Grootbank Citigroup is putting a brake on optimism. According to the bank, the outlook is anything but clear and the chance of a solid relapse remains.

Ethereum price forecast according to Citigroup

In its most recent report, Citigroup states that Ethereum will probably be around $ 4,300 at the end of 2025. That is approximately 4.5 percent lower than the current rate of $ 4,540. The bank thus opts for a strikingly reserved prognosis, despite the recovery of the cryptomarket.

Citigroup outlines three possible scenarios:

• Optimistic: Ethereum climbs to 6,400 dollars, provided that there is a lot of inflow from large institutional investors.
• Realistic: ETH gets stuck around 4,300 dollars, just below the current level.
• Somber: The price drops back to $ 2,200 when the activity on the network drops and the economy deteriorates.

The bank points out that the American labor market has shown weaker figures lately. According to Citigroup, that can increase the chance on a broader crisis that would also hit the cryptomarkt hard.

Layer-2s ensure new discussion

In addition to macro-economic risks, the bank also looks at the technological developments around Ethereum. More and more activity is shifting to so-called Layer-2 networks such as Arbitrum (ARB) and Polygon (Pol). They make transactions faster and cheaper, but Citigroup emphasizes that not all activity on those networks immediately adds value to Ethereum itself.

According to their calculations, only thirty percent of the Layer-2 activity really contributes to the appreciation of ETH. As a result, the currency would currently be traded at a too high price.

Little support from the macro economy

Citigroup does not expect a racing wind from the broader economy either. The S&P 500 is already close to their target of 6,600 points. According to them, that leaves little room for extra increases in risky assets such as crypto. For Ethereum, this means that in the coming period the course will mainly depend on adoption, technological progress and investor sentiment.

Other analysts see opportunities

Not everyone is as gloomy as a Citigroup. This year, investment veteran Tom Lee sees Ethereum to $ 12,000 – an increase of more than 166 percent.

Analysts from blockchain analysis company Cryptoquant are also positive. They take into account a rate of $ 6,000 to $ 7,000 even before the end of this year.