By Elias Jabbour, associate professor at the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the State University of Rio de Janeiro
After four days of discussion, the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CCP) ended on the 23rd. It was a meeting where a major topic, which directly affects not only the destinies of China, but the entire world, was discussed. I am referring to the proposals for the 15th Five-Year Plan to be started in 2026. Never in the history of socialist experiences has a five-year plan been so eagerly awaited by the specialized public and governments.
Now, in its time, the Soviet Union (a nation that inaugurated, in 1928, the era of the “five-year plans”) was a practically isolated country with very little contact with the capitalist world. Until the economic reforms of 1978, China experienced a similar situation, which changed over time.
Today, China is the world’s largest exporter and second largest importer, one of the world’s leading net credit providers and the most important trading partner for more than 160 countries. In other words, the future of its economy directly influences supply and demand structures around the world.
The current and most important step, becoming a world leader in sensitive technologies and, simultaneously, achieving economic and technological self-sufficiency, is a milestone for all of humanity and the Global South. A country that found itself in a situation of extreme poverty in 1949, today emerges as the nation that must break the monopoly of Western power in matters of science, technology and innovation.
After the elimination of extreme poverty, a fundamental mark of the 14th Five-Year Plan, China has the opportunity to once again demonstrate the superiority of socialism over capitalism, in the form of a self-sufficient, powerful nation with a rapidly expanding material base, as a fundamental assumption for the continued improvement of the living conditions of its population.
Five-year plans are an instrument that has undergone major transformations over the decades. On the one hand, it is a fundamental instrument of socialist governance. Yes, Deng Xiaoping was right when he said that the market was not an exclusive instrument of capitalism, nor was planning of socialism. But the fact is that planning is a fundamental attribute of socialism. It is through this instrument that human beings have been able to write history according to their wants and needs.
China has demonstrated, in opposition to the economic and social decadence in Western countries, that planning and its institutional framework, the “five-year plans”, was the greatest economic fact of the 20th century and continues to be so in the 21st century.
The results of the 14th Five-Year Plan were remarkable, taking into account the attempted technological bullying against China by the United States and the growing international instability.
Let’s look at some of these results: 1) China’s GDP increased from 103.5 trillion yuan in 2020 to around 134.9 trillion yuan in 2024, with an average annual real growth rate of 5.5%, consolidating itself as the second largest economy in the world; 2) China intensified investments in research and development (R&D), becoming one of the world leaders in artificial intelligence, semiconductors, renewable energy, electric vehicles and space exploration; 3) the country has taken major steps towards carbon neutrality by 2060, expanding the use of solar and wind energy and reducing the carbon intensity of GDP; 4) employment among people lifted out of poverty remained above 30 million, and more than 6 million at-risk people received targeted support to avoid returning to poverty.
The decisions taken by the 4th plenary session of the 20th Central Committee of the CPC leave many clues to unravel what will happen to China in the next five years. For example, deepening reform is a recurring theme, as the Chinese economy must be ready to face the international scenario, expanding and solidifying its industrial system. The path to self-sufficiency is evident. Transforming China into a scientific and technological power and a leader in the development of new quality productive forces is an existential imperative for the country.
High-quality development must be a central point as China commits to becoming a zero-carbon economy and today occupies the technological frontier in all production chains related to the energy transition. In other words, it is to give concreteness to the ideal of a “green” and “beautiful” China. The development of agriculture also follows the logic of the search for sovereignty, in this case, food sovereignty. New waves of reforms in production and property structures in Chinese agriculture are expected to be inaugurated, in line with a unique urbanization process in human history. The synthesis of this movement between countryside and city is the elevation of planning to another level, safely integrating rural and urban economies and promoting urban development without the contradictions present in large metropolises in the capitalist world.
Certainly after the end of the 15th Five-Year Plan, Chinese socialism will enter a higher level of construction. A level never dreamed of by the classics of Marxism, but which is about to become reality in the eyes of all lovers of peace and progress around the world.
The Text was written in collaboration with China Media Group
Source: https://www.ocafezinho.com/2025/10/24/a-china-e-o-15o-plano-quinquenal-o-socialismo-alcanca-um-novo-patamar/
