China managed to achieve its economic growth target for 2024, with a 5% increase in gross domestic product (GDP). This result occurs even in the face of significant internal and external adversities.
The leadership in Beijing may see this performance as a boost of confidence to face a challenging 2025, especially with the inauguration of the re-elected US president, Donald Trump, who promises a complicated scenario in trade relations.
The remarkable growth of 5.4% in the last quarter of 2024, the highest of the year, was driven by a surge in exports and a series of economic stimulus policies that began in late September.
Despite the good numbers, analysts indicate that repeating this growth target for 2025 may require redoubled efforts.
Potential new tariffs threatened by Trump and weakened domestic confidence are seen as the main obstacles.
Raymond Yeung, chief Greater China economist at ANZ Bank, explained that the 5% growth target reflects long-term policy needs more than just annual aspirations.
He highlighted that to achieve the goal of doubling GDP from 2020 by 2035, China would need to maintain an average annual growth rate of approximately 4.7%.
With increasing economic challenges expected for next year, more aggressive fiscal measures and continued monetary easing will be essential, according to Yeung. He adds that maintaining the 5% target demonstrates a commitment to more substantial political support.
The effects of the policies of President Trump, who will assume his second term next Monday, are already being felt.
His re-election in November prompted many investment banks to adjust China’s 2025 growth projections downward, ranging mainly between 4.5% and 4.7%.
These numbers reflect the expectation of a tense and challenging international trade environment for China next year.
With information from SCMP
Source: https://www.ocafezinho.com/2025/01/18/china-alcanca-meta-de-crescimento-de-5-em-2024-apesar-de-desafios-globais/
