Bitfinex: Bitcoin course ready for new rise in more stable macro climate

Bitcoin recently reached an all-time high of nearly $ 112,000. That caused a return of optimism among investors. The big question now is whether the increases can continue in the third quarter of 2025.

“In the coming weeks, it will show whether Bitcoin’s recent outbreak was only a local highlight, or that is precisely the start of a more aggressive upward movement in the third quarter,” said the analysts of Bitfinex.

A mild correction can be healthy

At the moment we see the Bitcoin course mainly consolidating and falling back a bit. This gives you the idea that the increase may already be over. At Bitfinex they look differently at the situation: “A period of consolidation or mild decreases would not only be healthy, but also provide a more sustainable soil for the next series of price increases.”

It is not uncommon for Bitcoin to consolidate for a longer period after achieving an all-time high. In March 2024, Bitcoin also reached a record of $ 73,679, and then the digital currency continued to struggle for the election victory of Donald Trump in November.

Based on history, we do not have to count on a positive third quarter. Historically, this is the worst quarter for Bitcoin, with an average return of only 6.03% over the last 11 years.

The fourth quarter is usually best with an average return of 85.42% for Bitcoin.

$ 11.4 billion in profit realized

In the short term, Bitcoin seems to be running into a resistance, because so-called short-term holders realized $ 11.4 billion in winnings in the past month. Short-term Holders are investors who own their bitcoin for less than 155 days, and therefore participate in the market relatively shortly.

In general, those investors are more sensitive to rapid increases or falls, and those price movements can persuade them relatively quickly to sell.

However, the analysts of Bitfinex keep hope. They see that there is still a lot of demand for the digital currency, that volatility is relatively low, and that the spot premium points to a more mature market; “That is ready for increases as soon as the macro situation becomes clearer.”