Banking giant UBS predicts when gold will reach $5,000

The gold price will continue to impress in 2025. According to the Swiss bank UBS, the rally is far from over. The bank expects gold to rise to $5,000 per ounce within a year. And if the unrest in the world increases further? Then it can even be taken one step further.

Gold is climbing faster than expected

With an increase of 66 percent since the beginning of this year, gold is one of the best-performing investments of 2025. At the time of writing, the price stands at $ 4,371 per ounce. UBS sees room for hundreds of dollars of additional profit and thinks the gold price will touch $5,000 in the third quarter of 2026.

The bank thus significantly increases its previous price target of $ 4,300. Even in a more cautious scenario, gold remains firm at around $4,800 by the end of 2026. But in the event of political or financial escalation, the price could rise as high as $5,400.

Why investors are turning to gold

UBS mentions several reasons why gold is so popular now. Low interest rates, a vulnerable global economy, concerns about American government finances and political tensions towards the American elections all play a role.

“If risks rise further, gold prices could rise to $5,400 per ounce,” UBS strategists said. The expectation that central banks will lower interest rates in particular creates additional demand. This applies not only to investors, but also to central banks themselves.

UBS therefore views recent price drops as temporary. The underlying demand for gold remains rock solid, according to the bank.

Central banks and investors are stocking up on gold

It seems that it is not only private investors who are hedging. Central banks already bought 634 tons of gold this year. UBS expects this to rise to 950 tonnes by the end of 2025.

Investor demand is also increasing: 222 tons have now flowed into gold ETFs and for the fourth quarter in a row the demand for gold bars and coins is above 300 tons. Even the jewelry sector is not deterred by the high prices.

According to UBS, many investors are still underweight in gold. The bank therefore recommends that gold make up at least a few percent of your portfolio.