Trump Claims 'Largely Negotiated' Iran Peace Deal Amidst Skepticism and Escalation

Former US President Donald Trump announced on Saturday that a peace agreement with Iran had been "largely negotiated," following extensive discussions with a Pakistani mediator, Gulf allies, and Israel. This development could potentially end the conflict initiated by the U.S. and Israel in February. Trump, utilizing his social media platform, stated that the "final aspects and details" of a "memorandum of understanding" were still under discussion and would be revealed shortly, specifically mentioning the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as part of the agreement.

"An agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization between the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the various other Countries," Trump posted, indicating a broad consensus.

Contrasting Trump's announcement, Iran's Fars news agency, which maintains close ties with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, reported that the Strait of Hormuz would remain under Iranian control. This point represents a significant red line for the United States. The news agency, via Telegram, asserted that "the management of the Strait, determining the route, time, method of passage, and issuing permits will continue to be the monopoly and discretion of the Islamic Republic of Iran," dismissing Trump's assertion of a near-final agreement as "inconsistent with reality."

Pakistan's Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, extended congratulations to Trump for his peace efforts and expressed his country's desire to host another round of talks between the U.S. and Iran "very soon." Sharif characterized a phone call made by the US president to leaders including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Egypt, the UAE, Jordan, and Pakistan as "very useful and productive." Pakistan's army chief, Syed Asim Munir, has been a central figure in these negotiations, holding recent meetings in Tehran with notable Iranian figures such as President Masoud Pezeshkian and parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

Trump's declaration came after Reuters reported a revised proposal submitted by Iran and Pakistan to the United States aimed at ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. According to Axios, details within the draft agreement reportedly include the reopening of the strait without tolls during a 60-day ceasefire extension, granting Iran the freedom to sell oil, and initiating negotiations on its nuclear program. In return, the U.S. would lift its blockade on Iranian ports, a detail corroborated by a U.S. official.

The Associated Press, citing a regional source, also indicated that the potential deal would feature an official declaration of the war's conclusion, with two-month negotiations planned for Iran’s nuclear program, the unhindered opening of the critical shipping lane by Iran, and the termination of the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports. Additionally, three senior Iranian officials informed the New York Times that the agreement would cease hostilities in Iran and Lebanon, potentially unlocking $25 billion in frozen Iranian assets overseas, with a nuclear agreement to be negotiated within 30 to 60 days.

Hints of progress in indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran emerged even before Trump's announcement. Marco Rubio, the U.S. Secretary of State, had suggested that "news" might be forthcoming "later today" during a visit to India, despite Trump's continued threats against Iran. Trump's social media post confirmed phone conversations with numerous Middle Eastern leaders, including those from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain, as well as Pakistan's army chief Munir, and Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. "Separately, I had a call with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel, which, likewise, went very well," Trump added.

Details regarding the precise nature of the negotiations remain limited. Trump mentioned meeting with American negotiators, including special envoy Steve Witkoff, adviser Jared Kushner, and JD Vance, to discuss the latest proposals. The announcement's lead-up was marked by tension, with Trump consistently issuing threats of military action. He had previously stated to CBS and Axios that he would only approve a deal "where we get everything we want," warning that failure to reach an agreement would result in renewed strikes against Iran.

The prospect of a deal sparked significant dismay among Republican hawks, who have long advocated for U.S. military intervention against Iran and criticized the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) that limited Iran's nuclear enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief under the Obama administration. Trump had withdrawn the U.S. from the JCPOA in 2018. Former CIA Director and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo denounced the rumored terms, likening them to those achieved by Obama's negotiators and suggesting they would benefit Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Pompeo tweeted that the deal seemed to "Pay the IRGC to build a WMD program and terrorize the world," referring to Obama's negotiators Wendy Sherman, Robert Malley, and Ben Rhodes. He advocated for a simpler approach: "Open the damned strait. Deny Iran access to money. Take out enough Iranian capability so it cannot threaten our allies in the region."

Malley, in turn, responded, acknowledging that it wasn't the path he or his colleagues would have chosen but stating that if the deal could end an "unlawful, unjustifiable war," and its associated human and economic costs, he would "willingly accept it over the alternative." Steven Cheung, the White House director of communications, reacted more sharply to Pompeo’s comments, stating on X, "Mike Pompeo has no idea what the fuck he's talking about. He should shut his stupid mouth and leave the real work to the professionals. He's not read into anything that's happening, so how would he know." When Senator Roger Wicker expressed concern that a "rumored 60-day ceasefire – with the belief that Iran will ever engage in good faith – would be a disaster. Everything accomplished by Operation Epic Fury would be for naught!", Rhodes countered that "Nothing was accomplished by Operation Epic Fury except putting the IRGC in charge of Iran and the Strait of Hormuz."