The US labor market delivered the most decisive data point of the week on Thursday. Job growth was considerably higher than expected, but at the same time unemployment rose to the highest level in four years. This double signal puts the markets on edge again. While stocks are recovering strongly, the crypto market remains noticeably in the red.
Jobs report gives a mixed picture, but the market responds positively
The delayed jobs report, which took weeks to arrive due to the prolonged government shutdown, shows that the US economy added 119,000 new jobs in September. That is more than double what was expected. At the same time, unemployment rose to 4.4 percent, the highest level since October 2021.
Economically speaking, this is a strange combination: more jobs, but also more people without work. Analysts point out that immigration effects and shifts in labor participation distort the report. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell previously indicated that he attaches more importance to rising unemployment than to the absolute job figure.
That’s exactly why US index futures immediately shot higher. According to market commentator The Kobeissi Letter, the well-known phenomenon is once again at play here: “bad news is good news”. Higher unemployment means that the chance of future interest rate cuts increases, even though a cut was further postponed in December.
Nvidia provides extra fireworks at the fair
That optimism was further fueled by Nvidia, which presented better-than-expected quarterly figures after Wall Street closed. The chip giant saw a rapid increase in turnover and issued a strong outlook for 2026, which immediately turned the stock market climate towards risk-on. The rally quickly spread to other tech names, causing both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 to open sharply higher.
On prediction markets such as Polymarket, Nvidia was already given a more than 90 percent chance of beating expectations. Those bets were right, and that is pushing stock market sentiment up even further today.
Crypto reacts completely differently: market remains in the red
Remarkably, Bitcoin and the larger altcoins hardly benefit from the improved sentiment on Wall Street. Nasdaq futures are up more than 2% ahead of the open, but Bitcoin is stuck around $90,600 with a slight loss. Ethereum dips below $3,000 again, while most altcoins also turn red.
According to analysts, the explanation lies in the difference between the two markets. Stocks are trading mainly on the AI story and the possible easing of Fed policy in 2026. The crypto market, on the other hand, is dealing with its own cocktail of problems: heavy ETF outflows, recent liquidation waves and technical weakness after last week’s confirmed death cross.
In addition, crypto has fallen much more sharply than equities in recent weeks, meaning traders remain reluctant to take immediate risks.
Outlook: crucial weeks for both crypto and macro
The jobs report gives the Fed sufficient reason to leave the current interest rate policy unchanged for a while. The focus now shifts to the next inflation figures and the December interest rate meeting. What will be particularly important for crypto is how calm returns to the derivatives markets, where volatility and leverage positions have caused much of the decline in recent weeks.
With Nvidia figures fueling risk-on sentiment, but a crypto market visibly struggling to recover, the dissonance between both markets remains high. The coming days will show whether Bitcoin will eventually continue to rise, or whether crypto will continue to follow its own path for the time being.
Source: https://newsbit.nl/amerikaanse-banencijfers-verrassen-aandelen-stijgen-hard-maar-cryptomarkt-blijft-achter/
