AEX price opens lower due to Iran, but Shell and defense shares benefit

It was already in line with expectations, but the AEX price opened a lot lower today due to the outbreak of the conflict in Iran. At the time of writing, this represents a decline of approximately 1 percent for the stock market index. The decline is not too bad, because Shell, for example, is a company that benefits from higher oil prices.

Investors take risk off the table

Broadly speaking, however, the stock market week has started poorly. Investors take risk off the table at times like this. That is to say: people generally sell growth shares and tech, which are then replaced by more defensive investments.

Gold, for example, has started the new week strong again and seems to be preparing for a renewed attack on the all-time high from earlier this year.

Furthermore, oil companies and defense parties are again the big winners. So Shell has already gained a few percent, BP is doing well, TotalEnergies rose by 4.5 percent and Rheinmetall is 2.9 percent higher.

Air France-KLM fell by more than 8 percent, while other airlines are also having difficulty with the developments. That is not surprising, because many flights in the Middle East will not take place in the near future. KLM will not fly to Dubai, Riyadh and Dammam until March 5.

Trump plans four weeks for attacks on Iran

If we are to take Donald Trump’s plans seriously, the conflict in Iran will not last long. He currently has four weeks planned for the attacks on Iran. Then it should be resolved and over.

It is not surprising that Trump wants a quick settlement, because he has renamed himself the ‘peace president.’ A long war in the Middle East would of course not fit in with that. At the same time, inflation is a crucial topic for him.

If it remains at too high a level for a long time due to these developments, it could cause him a lot of trouble towards the mid-term elections. These are planned for November.

If the conflict indeed ends quickly, that would be good news for the AEX and other stock market indices. Particularly because higher oil prices due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could have a significant impact on the global economy.