AEX price is creeping up, but resistance remains high

The AEX price is creeping up to 912 points today, but the resistance towards the level of 920 points remains enormous. It seems that the economic data from America was in any case no support for the Amsterdam stock market index.

Time for the US dollar

At the moment, it seems mainly time for the US dollar (DXY in the chart below), which has started a real recovery from the lows of late September.

As a result of strong economic data and yesterday’s higher-than-expected inflation scores, the chance of another 0.50% interest rate cut in November has virtually shrunk to zero.

That is good news for the US dollar, because it means that borrowing costs will remain at the elevated level for a little longer than expected, which should result in fewer dollars in circulation.

As a result, investors seem to be jumping on the US dollar more and this is usually at the expense of risk assets, including the AEX price, which is clearly running into resistance at the moment.

Looking forward to next week

A number of important macroeconomic data points are also scheduled for next week.

After yesterday’s high number of new unemployed in America, people are once again concerned about the health of the economy. As a result, next Thursday’s Retail Sales print is important.

If U.S. retail sales hold up, that’s a good sign for the economy. The same applies to unemployment claims, which are also scheduled for next Thursday.

They should show a decline again next week, so that this week’s high score may prove to be an exception.

If we can achieve that, the AEX can in theory have a good week. However, do we see unemployment creeping up further? This could then also put pressure on the AEX price.

In any case, the end of 2024 seems to be a very exciting one with the elections and all the macroeconomic developments.