The 2026 US midterm elections could become a major catalyst for a recovery in both the crypto market and the stock market. This is evident from a new report from Binance Research.
Midterm elections, which take place halfway through the presidential term, are historically often followed by strong stock market increases. As soon as the political uncertainty surrounding the elections disappears, investor confidence will grow.
S&P 500 average +19%, Bitcoin +54%
Binance Research data shows that the S&P 500 rises an average of about 19% in the twelve months following midterm elections. For Bitcoin (BTC) the average is even higher. In the three election cycles in which the cryptocurrency existed, Bitcoin rose an average of 54% in the year after the midterms.
According to the report, the post-election period could therefore be the strongest moment in the market cycle. The election results remove much of the political uncertainty, historically leading to strong rallies.
Midterm years themselves often painful for Bitcoin
The election years themselves regularly show weak performances. In 2014, Bitcoin fell approximately 56%, in 2018 the currency even lost approximately 73% and a correction of approximately 64% followed in 2022.
Despite these sharp declines, the market continued to recover in the following years. The next by-elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Geopolitical tensions are pressing in the short term
At the moment, the markets are mainly driven by the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran. A further escalation could cause oil prices to rise significantly, creating additional inflationary pressure and uncertainty among investors.
Oil prices briefly rose to $95 a barrel on Thursday after Iran intensified its attacks on energy infrastructure. Two fuel tankers were damaged by explosive-laden Iranian boats, Reuters reported. A spokesman for Iran’s military command said the world may need to prepare for an oil price of $200 per barrel.
Bitcoin remains below $70,000 for the time being
Bitcoin, meanwhile, is moving without clear direction. Analysts at crypto derivatives exchange Bitunix indicate that the price has repeatedly bounced below $70,000 and the market is not yet choosing a side.
They expect Bitcoin to remain within this range until major macroeconomic events, such as a cooling of the conflict or the impending elections, provide a clearer signal. Historical patterns suggest that the months leading up to the midterms could remain full of volatility, while the period afterward offers room for a new recovery.
Source: https://newsbit.nl/amerikaanse-tussentijdse-verkiezingen-kunnen-herstel-voor-bitcoin-en-aandelenmarkt-stimuleren/
