The EU and the US have quietly prepared an economic recovery plan for Ukraine worth $800 billion. The ambitious proposal can only get off the ground if there is a ceasefire with Russia. And that seems far away for now.
‘Money, no peace’
A confidential document seen by Politico shows how Brussels and Washington are preparing to rebuild Ukraine once the war ends. It concerns a 10-year plan until 2040 in which Ukraine is positioned as a future EU member state and investment paradise.
The core of the plan is a massive influx of public and private resources, with the aim of transforming Ukraine from a country in need of aid into an independent economy. The EU would release 100 billion euros through budget support and investment guarantees, intended to attract a total of 207 billion euros in investments. At the same time, the project aims for a broader global investment of $800 billion, with support from, among others, the IMF and the World Bank.
But implementation depends on a ceasefire that is not yet in sight. As long as Russian missiles continue to rain down on Ukrainian cities, investors fear the risks.
BlackRock: ‘Impossible to invest in a war zone’
Investment giant BlackRock, which is acting as an adviser to the scheme on a pro bono basis, warns that money will not flow until the violence stops. “It is almost impossible for pension funds to invest in a war zone,” Vice Chairman Philipp Hildebrand said at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
According to Hildebrand, the recovery will have to proceed in “phases”, with safety guarantees first before companies dare to invest. Despite the violence, American involvement remains strong. The US presents itself not only as a donor, but as a strategic investor and “credibility anchor” in the reconstruction.
‘No military plan, but an economic blueprint’
The recovery fund is part of a broader peace agenda: a 20-point US plan to reach an agreement between Kyiv and Moscow. It is striking that the plan assumes that there are already safety guarantees. In reality that is not the case. The focus is not on military intervention, but on economic cooperation.
A tripartite meeting between Ukraine, Russia and the US will take place in Abu Dhabi this weekend, with Jared Kushner and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink also expected to be present. The goal: to create conditions for recovery once the conflict ends.
Coerimpact?
The revelation of this secret plan underlines the long-term confidence of Western powers in Ukraine’s economic potential. But as long as the front line is active, that potential remains largely in the future.
Source: https://newsbit.nl/eu-en-vs-onthullen-postoorlogsplan-voor-oekraine-van-800-miljard/
