Bitcoin (BTC) seems to end the year with losses. According to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, the market is now in a bear market. He even warns of a scenario in which the Bitcoin price falls to $37,500 in 2026.
Bitcoin price follows a fixed pattern, according to analysts
In an extensive analysis on X, Martinez states that the Bitcoin price has been following a remarkably consistent cyclical pattern for years. He mainly looks at the duration of market cycles, not just at price levels. On average, he says, it takes about 1,064 days from a bottom to a new market top.
According to him, that timing was visible in previous cycles. From the beginning of 2015 to the end of 2017, there were exactly 1,064 days between the bottom and the top, after which a major correction followed. The bear market then lasted 364 days, until a new bottom was reached at the end of 2018.
This rhythm was also repeated in the period from 2018 to 2022. Once again there was more than 1,000 days between the bottom and top, followed by a correction phase of about a year. Martinez sees a structural rhythm in this.
If you apply this model to the current market, the bottom appears to be in November 2022, at a price of $ 15,500. If you add 1,064 days to that, you arrive at October 2025. Around that period, Bitcoin indeed peaked to a record price of more than 126,000 dollars.
According to Martinez, a new correction is imminent
According to Martinez, what happens next is particularly worrying. In previous bear markets, Bitcoin always lost a large part of its value. Between 2017 and 2018, the price fell by 84 percent. From 2021 to 2022, there was a decrease of approximately 77 percent.
On average, this amounts to a correction of eighty percent. If that scenario were to repeat itself, the bottom would be around $37,500 in October 2026.
Halvingcyclus versus ‘money cycle’
Not everyone agrees with Martinez. Analysts such as Raoul Pal and Cathie Wood point to the so-called ‘money cycle’ as the main driving force. According to that theory, bull markets mainly arise when central banks add massive amounts of liquidity to the financial system.
In recent years, the US central bank has pursued tight policy, but that is now changing. In December, interest rates were cut and the tightening policy stopped. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also indicated that the central bank will buy $40 billion worth of government bonds every month.
That extra liquidity seeks returns. And that could lead to new price increases on the financial markets in 2026.
Source: https://newsbit.nl/ali-martinez-bitcoin-koers-kan-terugvallen-naar-37-500-dollar-in-2026/
