Bitcoin Heads for Worst Q4 Since 2018 – Is More Pain Coming?

The Bitcoin price seems to be slowly finding a bottom after the crash to $80,000. Yet analysts are not very optimistic about a sustainable recovery. With a few trading days to go, the fourth quarter of 2025 appears to be shaping up to be the weakest year-end since 2018, outside of pronounced bear markets.

Relief, not conviction

According to figures from CoinGlass, Bitcoin is down more than 22 percent this quarter. This means that 2025 deviates sharply from the historical pattern, in which the fourth quarter was often one of the strongest periods for the largest cryptocurrency.

However, according to analysts, the cautious upward movement is not a sign of renewed confidence. “This is not a recovery, but an attempt at growth from a low starting position,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro. He points out that sentiment has only improved to a limited extent. The so-called Fear & Greed Index is around 25, which indicates decreasing fear, but still far from real risk appetite.

Market remains vulnerable

Bitcoin is still around 30 percent below its 2025 peak and is lower than at the beginning of the year. According to Kuptsikevich, attempts to bring the annual return towards zero offer little guidance. “Disappointment now dominates the euphoria that was dominant earlier this year,” he says.

This caution is reinforced by the trading developments in recent weeks. Gains made during Asian and European trading are often reversed once US markets open. That pattern shows how fragile the current recovery is.

Altcoins follow, but without a breakthrough

Other major cryptocurrencies are also moving sideways. XRP, Ether, Solana and Cardano posted slight gains, while some projects remain under pressure. The broader market therefore shows no clear rotation or new trend, but rather a wait-and-see attitude.

That image fits a market that is driven by fatigue after months of falling prices, not by conviction that a new upward phase has begun.

Historically weak year end

Historically, the fourth quarter has often delivered strong returns for Bitcoin. At the same time, previous cycles show that significant setbacks can occur, especially in periods of tight liquidity and macroeconomic uncertainty. 2025 seems to fall into the latter category.

With a quarterly loss of more than 22 percent, this year-end is among the weakest since 2018. Until there is a clear improvement in liquidity, macroeconomic conditions or investor sentiment, little will change for Bitcoin.

The recent rebound towards $90,000 therefore mainly offers temporary breathing space, but is not yet a convincing signal that the downward phase is definitively over.