Europe tries to contain US pressure on Ukraine

Under strong pressure from Washington, European leaders are working to prevent Kiev from accepting an agreement seen as an unprecedented concession to Moscow

Top European leaders have spent the past few days trying to buy time to prevent Ukraine from being pushed into a ceasefire deemed unfavorable, after the Trump administration imposed a deadline of just seven days for Kiev to accept the terms of a new plan negotiated with Moscow. The proposal, immediately rejected by Ukrainians and allies, is seen on the continent as an extreme concession to the Kremlin — a reading that reignited tensions and placed Washington at the center of criticism.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, in intense dialogue with authorities from France, Germany and other European countries, sought to assess how definitive the US ultimatum really was. The deadline of next Thursday, established after the release of a 28-point plan, has put European leaders on alert and led them to act behind the scenes to slow down the pace demanded by Washington.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz spoke directly with Donald Trump and managed, at least, to guarantee that discussions would continue at the level of national security advisors. This would place Marco Rubio — who has a strategic role in addition to his role as Secretary of State — at the center of the negotiations, a sign that the document could be less inflexible than Trump had initially suggested. Rubio, according to reports, described the text as a “proposal to generate new ideas”, and not as a closed format.

On Friday night, however, Trump again adopted a tough tone. Asked what would happen if Kiev did not accept the agreement, he said he was ready to move away from the conflict. “He’s going to have to like it — and if he doesn’t like it, then, you know, they should keep fighting, I think,” he said of Zelensky, noting that “at some point he’s going to have to accept something.” Still, in an interview with Fox News Radio the same morning, the American president suggested some room for maneuver by stating that, if the talks progress, the deadlines could be extended.

Expectations now fall on the G-20 meeting in Johannesburg, South Africa, where European leaders must build a joint strategy to respond to the US ultimatum. According to a source close to the discussions, the plan presented by the Americans and Russians would require Ukraine to give up extensive occupied areas, drastically reduce its armed forces and gradually dismantle the sanctions regime against Moscow.

A draft of the document, seen by Bloomberg News, provides for the de facto recognition of Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk as Russian territories “including by the United States”. It would also require Kiev to organize elections within 100 days, definitively give up on the goal of joining NATO and reduce military personnel to levels much lower than the current ones.

Given the initial impact, some diplomats recalled previous episodes in which Trump launched tough demands only to back down after pressure from Ukraine and European allies. A European official, speaking anonymously, highlighted that Zelensky has already been through similar situations and insisted that, despite the difficulties, Ukraine continues to impose significant losses on Russian troops and expand attacks on strategic targets within Russian territory. He also recalled that new American sanctions are about to come into force, which makes the scenario more complex for Moscow than for Kiev.

Experts also express skepticism. Meghan O’Sullivan, director of the Belfer Center at Harvard University, told Bloomberg Television that it is unrealistic to imagine that such a comprehensive package could be accepted by Ukrainians, Russians and Europeans. “Fundamental ideas need to be put on the table, but believing that all of this can be negotiated by Thursday seems inconceivable to me,” he declared.

Zelensky, in a post on social media, said he had spoken for almost an hour with US Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of the Army Dan Driscoll, who traveled to Kiev to discuss the plan. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin once again blamed Ukraine for the impasse and suggested that the Americans themselves — and not Moscow — were the authors of the new proposal.

Several elements of the agreement had already been categorically rejected by Ukraine in the past. NATO countries also view the text with suspicion, as it would limit the alliance’s ability to admit new members, which would require unanimity among the 32 member states. The document also proposes that the US provide security guarantees to Kiev — but on a paid basis — and that they receive half of the profits intended for the reconstruction of Ukraine. Sanctions against Moscow would be lifted as the planned steps are completed, paving the way for a future economic partnership between the United States and Russia.

While Europeans try to prevent the process from moving forward under pressure, Republican voices in the American Congress have also risen against the plan. Senator Roger Wicker, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said he doubts the agreement’s ability to achieve peace. For him, “Ukraine should not be forced to cede its territory to one of the world’s most flagrant war criminals, Vladimir Putin.”

Senator Mitch McConnell was even more direct: he accused Putin of trying to manipulate Trump throughout the year and criticized government advisers who, according to him, were more concerned with “appeasing” the Kremlin than seeking lasting peace. “If government officials are more concerned about appeasing Putin than ensuring real peace, then the president should look for new advisers,” he said.

With external and internal pressure, noise between allies and a plan that offers substantial advantages to Russia, Europe is trying to buy time. For many leaders on the continent, the solution hastily constructed by the US could compromise not only Ukraine’s sovereignty, but also the security of the entire region — and deliver results to the Kremlin that Moscow has never achieved on the battlefield.

With information from Bloomberg*