Trump announces cut in tariffs on coffee and rekindles expectations of a recovery in Brazilian exports

The President of the United States, Donald Trumpstated on Tuesday (11) that he intends to reduce import tariffs on coffeeone of the main commodities exported by Brazil. The statement was made during an interview with the program The Ingraham Anglefrom the broadcaster Fox Newsand marks the first concrete sign of flexibility in tariffs imposed by the American government in 2024.

“We are going to lower some tariffs on coffee, and we are going to have some coffee coming in [nos EUA]. We’re going to take care of all this very quickly, it’s surgical, it’s beautiful to see, but the cost of living today is much lower,” said Trump, according to Folha de S.Paulo.

The reduction in tariffs, according to analysts, could reopen space for Brazilian coffee in the American marketcurrently the world’s largest consumer of the drink.

Tariffs of 50% brought down Brazilian exports

From August 2024Brazilian coffee faces 50% taxation for entry into the United States, a measure that affected both exporters and the American retail sector itself.

Brazil, responsible for about a third of the coffee consumed in the USAexported US$1.96 billion last year, according to International Trade Administrationlinked to the American Department of Commerce. THE Colombiasecond placed, recorded US$1.48 billion in the same period.

The tariffs imposed by Trump provoked frozen stocks, contract cancellations and price increases of up to 40% for the North American consumer. In Septembercoffee had the biggest monthly increase of the centurywith advancement of 3,6%and in October it was left 19% more expensive than in the same month of 2024.

Conversations with Lula and expectations of a trade agreement

The announcement comes just over a month after the meeting between Trump and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT)held at Malaysiain October. The main agenda of the meeting was temporary removal of tariffs on Brazilian productsespecially coffee, steel and ethanol.

According to sources from ItamaratyTrump’s signaling is seen as direct result of dialogue with the Brazilian government. If confirmed, the measure may reduce prices in the American market e stimulate new exports of the grain.

Data Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (CeCafé) show that the Brazilian exports to the USA fell 52.8% in September 2025 in relation to the same month of the previous year, totaling 332.8 thousand bags. Germany and Italy surpassed the United States in the monthly ranking, although the country remains the main destination in the yearcom 4.36 million bags shipped between January and September — around 15% of total exports.

Specialty coffee and climate challenges

O unroasted coffee represented 5.3% of Brazilian exports to the USA between January and October, with a total value of US$1.7 billionaccording to the Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services (MDIC). The index exceeds that of 2024, which had been 4.7%.

In addition to trade tensions, the coffee sector faces climate impacts that put pressure on global supply. Since 2020, Brazil has suffered from recurring droughtsaffecting harvests and raising future prices.

The contract of Arabicaused in premium coffees, rose almost 40% since Augustwhile the robustaused in instant coffees, advanced 37% in the same period.

A Brazilian Specialty Coffee Association (BSCA) reported that the shipments of fine coffees to the US fell 67% after the start of the tariffs. Before taxes, approx. 150 thousand bags were sent monthly to states such as California, New York and Oregon. Currently, the number is around 50 thousand bags.

These coffees, considered to have high added value, can exceed R$ 3 thousand per bag of 60 kilosand are mainly sold to specialty coffee shops and artisanal roasters.

Coffee sector sees opportunity and demands concrete measures

During a International Coffee Week (SIC)recently held in Belo Horizonte (MG)producers highlighted the impact of the crisis and demanded immediate responses of the Brazilian and American governments.

“The signal is positive, but the sector needs deadlines and guarantees. Margins are tight and contracts are at a standstill”, he stated Silas Brazilianpresident of CeCafé.

For exporters, the Trump ad can represent the beginning of commercial normalization and allow Brazil recover participation in the North American market, estimated at US$340 billion annually.

The Brazilian government, in turn, hopes that the reduction of tariffs on coffee serve as starting point for a broader agreement liberalization of agricultural and industrial products.