Legislative election in Argentina challenges Milei’s future

The president’s party enters the dispute with the aim of inflating its reduced parliamentary base. Opposition, however, gains strength amid corruption scandals, falling popularity and economic pressures.

Argentines go to the polls this Sunday (26/10) for a parliamentary election that will renew half of the Chamber of Deputies and a third of the country’s Senate. The election should define the political future of President Javier Milei, whose governance, already fragile, is threatened by allegations of corruption and the drop in his popularity.

On August 21, deputy Marcela Pagano, who two years ago had been elected by Milei’s party, A Liberdade Avança, left the government party and launched a series of accusations against the government on social media that directly implicate the president’s sister, Karina Milei.

Leaked audios, which are still undergoing judicial verification, indicate that Karina, who is also general secretary of the Presidency, was involved in a bribery scheme in negotiations involving pharmaceutical companies. She denies the accusations.

For Pagano, the scandal is an indication that the Argentine Executive ignored the needs of the middle class and disadvantaged groups, such as people with disabilities and retirees, in addition to failing to exonerate those allegedly involved in cases of corruption, as promised by Milei.

“I was convinced that we could bring about real change, but unfortunately the project went off the rails,” Pagano tells DW. She believes that the “Argentine miracle”, which many economists around the world praised due to the massive drop in inflation under Milei’s government, exacts a high price.

“More than 25 thousand small and medium-sized companies had to close or suspend their activities due to the lack of demand and the increase in energy costs. Purchasing power from formal salaries fell by around 20% in real terms, while informal income and minimum pensions lost more than 30% of their value in relation to inflation”, reports Pagano.

Complaints by deputy Marcela Pagano opened a corruption scandal in the Milei government | Personal Archive

The social costs of the fiscal adjustment proposed by Javier Milei also put pressure on his popularity, which previously exceeded 50%. On the eve of the election, only 39.9% of Argentines approve of his administration, while 55.7% disapprove of it. The results could tip the votes of his supporters.

Popular support was precisely the main pillar of Milei’s governance. With a smaller legislative base than that of the Peronist opposition, the president has resorted to decrees and vetoes to implement his agenda. The expectation is that the legislative elections will increase the number of deputies aligned with the government, but analysts estimate that economic and political difficulties will continue to prevent Milei from achieving a stable majority in Congress.

Shock treatment with side effects

Apparently, the side effects of the shock treatment on the economy are greater than the cure itself. Milei imposed drastic measures on the country, which had an external debt of 278 billion dollars (R$1.5 trillion): he fired tens of thousands of public employees, abolished ministries and cut subsidies for medicines, electricity, water, gas and public transport, some of which are essential to life in society.

The symbol of this radical austerity policy is a chainsaw, with which he personifies the cutting of the State. In fact, there are results beyond controlling hyperinflation. Milei achieved the first budget surplus since 2010 through a slight boom in imports and record profits for exporting companies in the mining and energy sectors.

However, macroeconomic successes have not changed the lives of the poorest part of the population. The phrase “my month ends on the 20th” has become a popular saying for many Argentines, as the salary is simply not enough for the remaining ten days.

Experts estimate that one in two Argentines needs to dip into their savings every month to pay their bills. The reasons: an overvalued Argentine peso, with prices similar to those in the US and Europe, and rising unemployment, frozen wages and high rents due to the liberalization of the real estate market.

“Many people are working even more, others are postponing the purchases they intended to make for the future. Families are getting into debt. We have been in recession for two quarters, which has led to a drop in consumption”, says political analyst Sergio Berensztein.

Trump intends to launch a financial package to help Argentina, but only if Milei does well in the parliamentary elections | Jonathan Ernst/REUTERS

Trump tries to help Milei

Due to the economic crisis, Milei asked for help from one of his greatest political friends within the ultra-right: US President Donald Trump, who, in return, praised Milei as his “favorite president”. Washington wants to put together a financial package in the form of a currency swap worth 20 billion dollars (R$107 million) for Argentina.

But not without interfering in the electoral campaign: “If he wins, we will continue with him. If he doesn’t win, we will leave,” Trump said last week, linking the financial aid to Milei’s success in this Sunday’s parliamentary elections.

It could be a close call: polls predict a tight dispute between Milei’s party, A Liberdade Avança, and the Peronists of Fuerza Patria, who returned to prominence especially after their victory in the Buenos Aires provincial elections at the beginning of September.

Peronists are also counting on the fact that the euphoria of young voters, some of the current government’s biggest supporters, has waned, bringing down its popularity.

Many young people say they are disappointed with the president’s performance: “In 2023, the presidential election was decided by the votes of young people. Although Milei can still count on great support among them, this no longer happens to the same extent”, says Berensztein.

In general, more men than women voted for Milei: “In the interior of the country, he is still seen as a voice against the system, although he has never visited many of these provinces”, he says.

Campaign marred by scandals

The outcome of the parliamentary election also depends on the ability of the president – ​​who in one of his most recent and memorable appearances in the election campaign presented himself as a rock star – to free himself from the corruption scandals that are shaking his government.

To the scandal involving her sister, dubbed “Karinagate”, was added the case of José Luis Espert, a supporter of Milei accused of links to a drug trafficker.

“The result of the parliamentary elections is not as decisive as how the government will deal with the result. It is clear that it is important for Milei to win the elections, even if it is by a small margin, to gain political capital and stop the momentum of the Peronists”, says Berensztein.

“But a victory does not solve Argentina’s problems. Milei needs to learn to build bridges and, above all, change his confrontational style”, he concludes.

Originally published by DW on 10/25/2025

By Oliver Pieper