XRP ETFs on the horizon: analyst sees chance of 800% increase

The lead-up to approval of spot XRP ETFs is in full swing. Several applications to the American stock exchange watchdog from Grayscale Investments, 21Shares and Bitwise Asset Management, among others, are in the pipeline, although no decision has yet been made due to the current American government shutdown.

The exciting thing is what the price potential for XRP is if these ETFs really take off and how large the inflows can become.

Large inflow into Bitcoin, opportunities for XRP?

Analysts are optimistic about the inflow opportunities. For example, Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg has predicted that inflows could reach $5 billion to $10 billion in the first month after the launch of the spot XRP ETFs. Such an ETF is a listed fund that tracks the price of an underlying asset, in this case XRP.

The current cumulative inflow into Bitcoin ETFs, according to data from SoSoValue, is approximately $65.17 billion, of which $26.6 billion will be in 2025 alone. If XRP ETFs manage to achieve only 50 percent of that inflow in two years, i.e. approximately $13.3 billion, an interesting picture emerges of the possible effect on the market cap and price.

According to analyst Dom, history shows that XRP responds strongly to inflows. According to him, an inflow of $61 million will eventually lead to an increase in value of $16.6 billion, or a factor of 272. If we keep only a third of that, so around 90 times, an inflow of $13.3 billion could be enough to increase the market cap by $1.2 trillion.

Based on the current value of $143 billion and a rate of $2.38 per XRP, that would mean a theoretical price of $22.48, an increase of approximately 844 percent.

Can XRP Really Rise Toward $22?

Is this realistic? That depends on various factors, such as the actual inflow, how that inflow is distributed over time and whether the market has already partly priced it in. It is quite conceivable that the market has already partly priced in the expectations surrounding the ETFs.

In addition, the broader economic and regulatory situation also plays a role, such as possible interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (FED), inflation figures, stricter or more flexible regulations from the SEC, and general investor sentiment in the crypto market.

The big question remains whether XRP can actually rise towards $22 with just half of the inflows from Bitcoin ETFs. It remains speculative, but the calculations do indicate a strong chance of further increases.