Soy Harvest in the US becomes a millionaire crisis and uncertainty

Chinese market retraction and commercial tariffs aggravate the crisis, threatening the survival of thousands of family farms

In the US agricultural heart, the 2025 soybean harvest season, which should be synonymous with expectation and hope, has become a portrait of despair. Pressured by growing costs, extreme climate and instability in international trade, farmers report that they are facing one of the worst crises in recent decades.

“We are in a significant and desperate situation, where none of the cultures that farmers currently cultivate profit. They don’t even reach the equilibrium point,” he said Stefan Maupinexecutive director of the Tennessee soybean promotion board, to the website Tennessee Lookout.

Billionaire losses and compromised crop

This year, US producers cultivated about 1.75 million acres of soy – The equivalent of more than 708 thousand hectares. However, instead of abundant harvests, the forecast is of severe damage. According to Institute of Agriculture, University of Tennesseesoy losses in the state can reach almost US $ 110 million only in 2025.

Climatic conditions further aggravated the crisis. Floods in spring followed by a dry and punishing summer have drastically reduced productivity. THE US Department of Agriculture (USDA) had designed an average yield of 53,5 bushels por acreBut Tennessee farmers say this estimate is too optimistic. For many, reality must be around 30 bushels por acrean alarming number of the investment made.

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High costs and fall prices

In addition to climate instability, farmers live with increasing costs. Expenses with fertilizers, land and agricultural machinery fired, while the price of soybeans in the international market plummeted. The website Newser He reported that this combination creates an unsustainable equation, where each Acre cultivated represents the most damage.

A report from the University of Tennessee showed the size of the problem: based on an average productivity of 50 bushels per Acre, producers must lose about $ 84 per Acre until mid -August. For a farmer with 3 mil acresthat means a break close to US$ 250 mil In a single season.

The loss of China and the uncertain future

Perhaps the hardest blow to producers is the retraction in the foreign market. Historically China was the largest buyer of American soyensuring an essential part of farmers’ income. Today, the volatility of commercial tariffs and political tensions have drastically reduced this flow, opening a wound that threatens the sector’s long -term sustainability.

In the countryside, between machines that reap down grains below expectations and accounts that do not close, the feeling is of discouragement. For many, the 2025 crop will be marked not only by financial losses, but also by uncertainty about the future of agriculture in the United States.

While governments discuss global rates and markets, thousands of rural families struggle to survive in growing debt and the weight of a harvest that, instead of ensuring stability, has become synonymous with ruin.

Frustration and risk of losing a generation of farms

The crisis in the agricultural sector is not just about economic numbers and predictions. It is already beginning to affect the lives of thousands of rural families that support soy production in the country.

“Producers are expressing growing frustration,” said the website Newser. “Many warn that the current situation can extend for years and exterminate a generation of family farms.”

The warning was reinforced by Caleb Raglandpresident of American soy associationin letter sent to President Donald Trump in August. “US soybean producers cannot survive a prolonged commercial dispute with our largest client,” Ragland wrote directly to China. In an interview with Nation of Changehe was even more categorical: “We depend on the Chinese market.”

Harvest without buyers

No Dakota do Nortewhere farmers are in a few weeks of harvest, the climate is not a celebration, but of apprehension. The producer Mike Appert He reported to KFYR-TV to the broadcaster that there have been no significant sales records so far. “I think this year, in the soybean harvest, we will witness what can happen if you have a lot of grains and no clients to fuel them,” he said.

The drop in commodity prices has aggravated the situation. Last year, soy was sold to US$ 12 por bushel (nearly $ 441 per ton). Today, the price fell to US$ 10 por bushel (approximately $ 367 per ton), which forced many producers to store the crop in silos instead of selling it. “I can’t sell at such a low price. The situation of tariffs is a little harder for us because it is not possible to do hedge or manage it,” said Appert.

Insufficient government aid

Given this scenario, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced, last Friday, a According to economic assistance payment for eligible producers of the 2024 crop. The measure, however, did not bring relief. “Although federal authorities have discussed assistance programs to help farmers … the general feeling is dark,” said the Newser.

The producer Chad Johnsonof Dakota do Sul, it harshly criticized the posture of the authorities. “I know that several questions were asked to them and, for lack of a better word, they ignored them,” he said in an interview with Dakota News Now.

The severity of the crisis is confirmed by official numbers. THE American Federation of Agricultural Agencies (AFA) reported that the courts registered 216 Farm Bankruptcy in 2024an increase of 55% compared to 2023.

Johnson expressed his concern to the station South Dakota Public Broadcasting: “We need help now. They need to start doing something. Or end the rates or reach a business agreement to end these tariffs, so we can start building about what we have done for many, many years.”

The Dilemma of the Future

No Tennessee, Stefan Maupinfrom the soy promotion board, fears that many farmers can’t cross 2025. “They are reaping now,” he said. The problem, according to him, is that most of the bills are paid only after the sale of the crop – and this year, there will be no enough cash flow to cover the costs.

The Farmer Mike DobeshNebraska, shares of the same anguish. He questions how it will be possible to guarantee financing for the next agricultural cycle if the current one already plunges to loss. “If you don’t generate cash flow now and you are having trouble paying your operating loan, how will you get funding for next year if there is nothing positive in sight?” He asked in an interview with KSNB.

Dobesh, like many other producers, expects political leaders in Washington to make more than speeches. “I hoped American politicians could do more to fight for farmers,” he said, in a tone of outstanding.

Among full silos, accumulated debts and uncertainties in international trade, US soy farmers see the prospect of stability every day. For many, the 2025 crop may not only mean a bad year, but the rupture point for thousands of families that have supported by generations the country’s agricultural base.

Economic impacts expand pressure on farmers

While soybean producers struggle to survive the drop in price and loss of markets, new economic data released on Friday (26) show that Inflation of consumption in the United States Follows with projections, adding another layer of complexity to the scenario to the agricultural sector.

The index core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures)which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2% in Augustafter a 0.3% increase in July, the Department of Commerce. The full index, which includes all items, advanced 2.7% in the monthin accordance with the expectations of economists consulted by Reuters.

PCE is the preferred indicator for Federal Reserve (Fed) To make monetary policy decisions, and the relative stability of the inflation core suggests that the Central Bank can maintain its strategies without drastic changes, at least in the short term.

Consumer spending maintains growth, but inequality persists

In parallel, US consumer spending surprised positively, growing 0.4% in Augustabove the projection of 0.2%. This increase occurs even with the slowdown of the labor market, which has recorded a slower job creation in the last three months.

Experts point out that this behavior is being driven mainly by high -income families, benefiting from a robust stock market and high real estate prices, which raised the total wealth of families to a record of a record of $ 176.3 trillion In the second quarter, according to Fed data. On the other hand, low -income families continue to face difficulties, bearing most of the impact of increased product prices due to import tariffs.

Consumption behavior has a direct impact on economic growth. US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has advanced at an annualized rate of 3.8% no second quarterthe strongest in almost two years. For the third quarter, the estimates point to a slowdown, converging for an annualized growth of 2,5%.

Despite the increase in spending, economists expect higher inflation and tariff prices to reduce consumption by the end of the year. The effect of Trump government fares has been partially damaged by companies, which have sold accumulated stocks before the measures were entry into force and, in some cases, absorbed part of the additional cost.

Market reaction

After the disclosure of the data, the future of New York registered discharge, while the income from the US Treasury titles fell. In Brazil, the dollar started to operate in low lowreflecting the influence of American indicators on the global market.

The pressure on farmers

For soybean producers, the economic scenario reveals a cruel contrast: as the economy in general grows and the wealth of wealthier families achieve historical records, farmers face a combination of falling soybean prices, increased production costs, commercial tariffs and crop flow difficulties. This disparity intensifies the sense of urgency in the field, and many question whether federal policies or international agreements will be able to offer some concrete relief before it is too late.

Among damage, stored harvests, and unstable external markets, the American soy sector is going through one of the most critical seasons in its history, and the horizon remains uncertain for both producers and the global agricultural market.

With information from Global Times*