Would Middle East be on the way to having an “Islamic NATO”?

Israel’s unpublished attack on Qatar in the Persian Gulf, caused ruptures in Arab defense policies, with more appeals to regional cooperation.

There was not much what Qatar could do in relation to the ballistic missiles that Israel fired in Doha on September 9, when about 10 Israeli fighters flew over the Red Sea without crossing the airspace of any other country before putting the action into practice. An attack considered “beyond the horizon”.

Ballistic missiles travel to the atmosphere or even the outer space before they return to Earth. The target of Israeli missiles were members of the Hamas Group, gathered to discuss a possible ceasefire in Gaza, in a noble neighborhood of the capital Doha. Six people were killed, although apparently it was not the targets of Israel.

As the missiles emerged unexpectedly, Qatar could do little to defend itself. The truth is that one of the country’s most important safeguards against Israel has no connection with sophisticated anti -aircraft defense systems. The largest Israeli ally, the US, have their largest regional base in the country and recently granted the status of “great non -member ally.”

But not even that seems to have been enough to prevent Israel from performing its first known attack on an Arab state of the Gulf, an action on which the US probably would have to know.

USA are seen as unreliable

“The Israeli attack shakes the gulf’s assumptions about their US relations, and these countries will get closer. These oil monarchies are very similar… such a direct attack on their sovereignty and security is an anathema for all of them,” wrote Kristin Diwan, a researcher at the Gulf Arab Institute in Washington, shortly after the attack.

As a result, “Gulf’s rulers seek greater strategic autonomy and are increasingly determined to protect themselves against the risks of depending on the US,” said Saman Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Chatham House program, in an article published this month in the British newspaper The Guardian.

Due to all this, in recent weeks, there has been more and more about the formation of an Islamic “NATO”, an alliance of defense between Islamic and Arab countries that could work similarly to the organization of the North Atlantic Treaty.

In an emergency dome organized last week by the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, Egyptian authorities suggested the creation of a joint task force for the NAB-like Nations.

During a speech, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani also asked for a collective approach to regional security. And the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (CCG)-Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates-said they would activate a clause of a joint defense agreement, signed for the first time in 2000, which said that an attack on a member state was an attack on all-a formulation similar to NATO article 5.

After the emergency summit, the Ministers of Defense of the Gulf States held another meeting in Doha and agreed to improve information sharing and reports on the air situation, as well as to accelerate the creation of a new regional ballistic missile warning system. Plans for joint military exercises were also announced.

In the same week, Saudi Arabia announced a “strategic agreement of mutual defense” with Pakistan, stating that “any aggression against one of the two will be considered an aggression against both.”

Beginning of “Islamic NATO”?

According to DW interviewed experts, it may seem, at first, that the Persian Gulf is even forming a kind of “Islamic NATO” to combat Israel, but reality is a little different.

“An NATO -style alliance is not realistic because it would involve gulf countries in wars that they do not consider vital to their own interests. No Gulf ruler wants to be dragged to a confrontation with Israel on behalf of Egypt, for example,” says Andreas Krieg, senior professor at the King’s College School of Security Studies.

Observers believe, however, that things are changing after the attack in Doha.

“Gulf security has been based on a tax logic for a long time, [em que] Basically you pay someone to take care of your protection. After the attack in Doha, this mindset is beginning to change, but only slowly, ”argues Krieg.

“6+2” format

Instead of an “Islamic NATO”, what the world can see is the so -called “6+2 format,” explains Cinzia Bianco, expert in Gulf countries at Think Tank European Foreign Relations Council (ECFR). The expression “6+2” refers to the six CCG countries, plus Turkey and Egypt.

Bianco believes this format is probably discussed behind the scenes of the United Nations General Assembly this week.

“However, it is not really an agreement such as Article 5. It is more likely to be collective to security and defense postures and, perhaps the most important, send a message of dissuasion to Israel,” he says, claiming that the commitment of the Gulf States to Mutual Defense is not as solid as that of NATA members.

Military aid from other places

According to Krieg, “6+2” makes more sense than an “Islamic NATO” because Turkey is “the most reliable non -western partner for the Gulf, with troops already parked in Qatar since 2017 and the actual ability to act quickly in the event of crisis. Egypt, however, is more complicated. The country has military strength, but its reliability is questioned in some capitals of the Gulf”, he argues.

And even if a “6+2” format is on the plans, it will happen slowly and discreetly, Krieg and Bianco observe.

“Most significant changes will occur behind the scenes. We will see public communications, domes and joint exercises. But essential work, such as radar data sharing, the integration of early alert systems or the granting of base rights, will remain discreet,” says Krieg.

It is also possible that the Gulf countries, which have been widely dependent on the US, try to expand defense ties with other countries.

“There are other actors, such as Russia and China, who are willing to replace the US. But it is unlikely that any external actor replaces Americans overnight,” says Sinem Cengiz, a researcher at the University of Qatar Gulf Study Center.

American dependence

Anyway, there is no way the Gulf states want this, Bianco adds. They remain dependent on US military technology. For example, after the attack on Doha, Qatar sought US guarantees that they were still their partners.

“An important observation here is that the US never openly opposed this kind of regionalization of defense. In fact, they have always encouraged a unique ballistic antimysis architecture for Gulf countries,” says Bianco.

In fact, greater military integration in the Gulf could mean more US presence, as American systems are the backbone of defense in the region, Krieg explains.

“But the political meaning has changed. Washington is no longer seen as the maximum security guarantee, but as a partner whose support is conditional and transactional. Gulf leaders are adapting to the idea that the US has interests, instead of allies, and are looking for a security hub led by Gulf itself, a middle ground between Iran and Israel,” concludes the expert.

Originally published by DW on 09/25/2025