The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has raised on Tuesday its growth forecast for the Spanish economy in 2025 in two tenths, up to 2.6%, and keeps our country in the lead in the prospects between the great economies.
The ‘Economic Perspectives’ report published on Tuesday that Spain more that will double the progress of the GDP of the Eurozone (1.2%) in 2025 and that it will be exactly double by 2026. The OECD has modified both records for the euro zone in a tenth compared to June.
The OECD maintains growth in 2025 for France and Italy in 0.6% and cuts it in a tenth for 0.3% Germany. By 2026, he estimates that Germany will accelerate 1.1%, a tenth less than the delineated three months ago, while France will stay at 0.9%already predicted and Italy will stagnate at 0.6%, a tenth less.
The agency expects inflation in Spain to notice this exercise and the following the same increases as GDP, 2.6% and 2%, two and a tenth more also than that augurated in June. The underlying for 2025 will close at 2.3%, without changes, to go back to 1.9% in 2026, a tenth less.
Price data show an unfavorable differential for Spain with respect to their partners, since inflation will be five tenths above the Eurozone data in 2025 and one in 2026. However, the distance becomes positive for Spain in terms of underlying variable when there is a tenth below the average reading of the Eurozone for the two years.
The ‘Think Tank’ of developed economies stressed that worldwide economic growth has revealed “more resilient than anticipated” during the first half of 2025, especially in emerging countries.
“Industrial production and trade were supported by the anticipation of tariff increases. Strong investments related to artificial intelligence promoted the results in the United States and fiscal support in China compensated the ballast of commercial obstacles and the weakness of the real estate market,” says the OECD.
World GDP will gradually decelerate 3.2% from 2025 to 2.9% in 2026 as this anticipated industrial production cessation and tariffs, with their consequent uncertainty, end up reducing trade and investment flows.
As for the United States, the agency estimates that the annual growth of GDP will slow down 2.8% in 2024 to 1.8% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, since the strong growth of investment in high -tech sectors will be more than compensated by tariffs and the fall in net immigration.
The entity emphasizes that the average rate of US tariffs rose to 19.5% in August, its highest level since 1933. The full effects of these taxes would be pending to materialize since companies are absorbing them on their margins, although they would already be affecting consumption and employment.
For its part, China will write down an improvement of GDP of 4.9% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026, two and one more tenth, respectively. From the OECD they blame this wear and tear to the exhaustion of early industrial production, as well as the definitive entry of obstacles to trade and to the lower procyclical effect of taxation.
Inflation is expected to decrease in most G-20 economies as growth is moderated and the labor market pressures are relieved. The general rate will decrease from 3.4% from 2025 to 2.9% of 2026 in the G-20 economies, while the underlying within the rich countries of said group will remain practically stable in 2.6% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026.
Important risks
The OECD warns of the “important risks” that the Macro panorama continues, specifically, in the form of higher bilateral tariffs, inflation rebounds, debt problems or a “substantial” correction of the bags. He has also warned of the “volatile assessment” of cryptoactive and their growing interconnection with traditional banking.
On the contrary, backing down with trade restrictions and development and deployment of artificial intelligence faster than expected could boost growth.
The organization based in Paris has recommended to member countries cooperate within the existing commercial order to strengthen its transparency in parallel to the approach to economic security issues.
He has also encouraged states to be “disciplined” in fiscal matters with a view to creating ‘anti -crisis mattresses’ and to execute structural reforms that relate GDP, life standards and take advantage of all the benefits that AI has to offer.
The OECD has also urged central banks to “remain vigilant” and “act with decision” in case the price stability is threatened. Likewise, a spear has broken in favor of political non -interference in the operation of the issuing institutes.
“Whenever inflation expectations remain well anchored, interest rates should continue in the economies in which underlying inflation is expected to be moderated towards the objective,” said the multilateral institution.
“Maintaining the independence of central banks will preserve the credibility of monetary policy and reduce the volatility and persistence of inflation,” he added.
The new OECD forecast for Spain is in line with the estimate that the agency formed by the Club of 38 developed countries launched last March, when it predicted a growth of 2.6%, as now, without then assume the imposition of tariffs between the United States and the EU. A forecast that the agency reduced 2.4%in June, as a consequence of the commercial war undertaken by the president of the United States, Donald Trump.
Now, the OECD re -sets that provision of 2.6% for this exercise. By 2026, the multilateral organization adjusts its projection in a tenth in its new forecasts, placing it at 2%.
The new growth estimate of the OECD Spain is almost in line with the new forecasts of the Spanish Government, which last week raised in a tenth, up to 2.7%, and is in line with the last review of the Bank of Spain, which also predicted last week a 2.6% growth for this year.
The Ministry of Economic Affairs emphasizes that, with these new forecasts of the OECD, “Spain will lead the growth among advanced economies in 2025, despite the context of geopolitical and commercial uncertainty.”
The department of Carlos Body emphasizes that the 2.6% forecast for Spanish GDP “triples the projection for the whole of the euro zone and doubles that of the EU, according to the latest data of the European Commission.”
These projections do not include the review of the National Accounting of the National Institute of Statistics (INE) last Friday, which, other adjustments, have raised the growth of the GDP of Spain in 2024 three tenths, up to 3.5%, mainly due to a greater advance of the investment of what is initially calculated.
“GDP growth will continue to be promoted by a remarkable dynamism of consumption and investment. In turn, the forecast is that employment growth remains compatible with productivity increases,” said Economy Minister Carlos Corpora. “The Spanish economy has to be good so that we can be able to reinforce the welfare state and that growth reaches the day to day of citizens,” he added.
Source: www.eldiario.es
