Lula prepares response to the American economic siege

Planalto begins process based on the reciprocity law to react to possible American sanctions linked to Bolsonaro’s trial

In a strategic movement, the federal government began a process that could authorize Brazil to commercially retaliate the United States if new sanctions are imposed by President Donald Trump’s government. The measure, which follows the reciprocity law, is viewed internally as a “safe” or a letter in the sleeve to protect national interests at a time of high bilateral tension.

The crisis scenario gets worse by the eve of an event of great repercussion: the trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro and seven other defendants by the first class of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), scheduled for Tuesday (2), from 9am. In the Plateau, the predominant assessment is that a possible conviction of Bolsonaro can trigger an immediate and negative reaction from Washington.

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Although government members publicly deny a direct connection between the beginning of the reciprocity process and the STF trial, they admit, off, that the initiative seeks to create a quick legal support for a political response if the US decides to climb the penalties against Brazil.

Fear is not unfounded. The former president’s allies have already signaled that they expect a reprisal from Trump, which could include the extent of the magnitsky law-used to sanction individuals for alleged human rights violations-to the wife of Minister Alexandre de Moraes and other court members.

The formal step was taken on Friday (29), when the Brazilian Embassy in Washington notified the Office of the US Commercial Representative (USTR) about the opening of the reciprocity process. The process, which can take from six months to a year to complete, is a way for Brazil to anticipate. If the situation is quickly degraded, the country still has the option of triggering an emergency reaction mechanism provided for in the same law, imposing tariffs on American products almost immediately.

The shadow of the American election hangs over relationships. The assessment in the corridors of power is that Washington’s interest remains absolutely focused on the judicial outcome involving Bolsonaro and that the tension between the two countries must endure at least until the 2026 presidential claim.

Since the announcement of the first sanctions, on July 9, Trump has explicitly used the situation of the former Brazilian president as a justification for his actions, which have already included 50% rates on Brazilian products, cancellation of views of authorities and direct sanction to Minister Alexandre de Moraes.

Brazil maintains the stance that it is open to dialogue, but there is no optimism in the government that this opening will be sufficient to change the American disposition to negotiate. The moment is of preparation for the worst, while observing, with apprehension, the next chapters that will be written in both the plenary of the Federal Supreme Court and the White House.

With information from CNN