What can make Germany change position on Israel

EU countries press Israel’s sanctions for war in the Gaza Strip. Germany resists, but faces increasing internal, external pressure and risk of political isolation.

During an informal meeting of foreign ministers of European Union (EU) countries in Copenhagen last weekend, one of the topics discussed – once again – if it would be possible – and how – sanctioning Israel for its actions in the gaza track conflict.

Although the severity of Israel’s actions is still being debated, most observers no longer dispute that the Israeli military campaign in Gaza, launched after the attack by the Palestinian radical group Hamas in October 2023, resulted in violations of international humanitarian law.

There is a “growing majority” of countries that support sanctions against Israel, the EU’s head of diplomacy, Kaja Kallas, said. But Europe’s main diplomats could not reach any consensus. Some have expressed, in private conversations, frustration with the bloc countries that are blocking sanctions against Israel.

One of these countries is Germany.

In Copenhagen, Spain, Ireland, France, the Netherlands and others defended sanctions against Israel; Italy, Austria, Hungary, Czech Republic and Germany resisted | Thomas Traasdahl/Ritzau Scanpix/AFP/Getty Images

After the meeting in Copenhagen, Kallas told DW that the EU was in constant contact with Israel and pressing so that more humanitarian aid be allowed in Gaza. “There are things that have improved,” she noted, “but it’s not enough. It’s frustrating that we can’t do it anymore.”

Several measures have been discussed, including the suspension of the UE-Israel Association Agreement, a commercial pact, or the exclusion of Israeli companies from the European Research Fund Horizon, or the direct imposition of sanctions against Israeli settlers.

Some of these measures would require a qualified majority to be approved-that is, support from 55% of IM Member States, which represent at least 65% of the block’s population. That is why Germany – the most populous country of the EU – is so important for this vote.

But so far, German politicians, including Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul, have been limited to saying that Israel must act within the limits of international law. Some German weapons exports have been restricted, but may be resumed in the future, and any type of commercial embargo or other sanctions have been rejected.

As stated by the Frankfurt Peace Research Institute in a May 2025 comment, Germany’s role has been mainly limited to “criticism without consequences.”

Germany has a historical responsibility with the State of Israel because of the Holocaust. But at the same time, the pressure grows for the country to take any attitude.

What could the German government change its mind? In response to this question, a government spokesman referred to DW previous statements made by Friedrich Merz, but did not provide a direct response.

Can public opinion influence?

Research indicates that German voters are increasingly contrary to sending weapons to Israel. In the most recent survey of PolyBatbarometer, regularly commissioned by public broadcaster ZDF, 76% of Germans say they believe that Israel’s actions in Gaza are not justified. The same survey shows that 83% of Germans think the government should stop or limit weapons exports to Israel. Other research indicates that Germans have increasingly favorable visions to Israel.

At least some of these opinions are not new. For over a year, research has already indicated that most Germans feel that way. But at a press conference in June, when a government spokesman was asked about it, he replied, “Public feeling is not a decisive factor for such fundamental decisions.”

In March 2024, 69% of Germans already considered Israel’s actions in unjustifiable Gaza, according to the PolitBarometer | Ilkin Eskipehlivan/Anadoli Agency/Imago

“Honestly, it’s hard to imagine what could change Germany’s position,” says Rene Wildangel, an independent expert in the Middle East and former European Foreign Board.

“Since Merz announced a partial ban on gun supply in August and has been criticized by several members of the party, Germany has been extremely defensive,” he says. “The only chance I see is that more and more Germans take to the streets and make their voices heard. Because, looking at research, a wide majority rejects Israel’s actions in Gaza.”

Internal policy under increasing pressure

In recent months, German politicians from all over the political spectrum have also manifested more about the subject.

The left party, which is in opposition, has been pressured by the suspension of the UE-Israel Association Agreement and the end of weapons exports. “These issues are already being discussed publicly, and I suspect that the pressure in Germany will continue to grow,” says Katja Hermann, expert in the region by the Rosa Luxembourg Foundation, associated with the acronym.

More recently, some members of the Center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) have also begun to suggest more concrete measures. The SPD is the minority partner of the current government coalition, led by the Christian Democratic Party (CDU) of conservatives.

Earlier this year, the SPD branch in Berlin approved a resolution formally installing the government to do more. This included not blocking the suspension of the EU association agreement with Israel.

Merz and Wadephul, both members of the CDU, have criticized Israel’s actions in Gaza. But when it comes to EU level sanctions, CDU and CSU – CDU’s Brother Party in Bavaria – insist that the best way to influence Israel to abandon what a politician called the “wrong way” is through the nearby relationship.

In May, Friedrich Merz (left) stated that Israel violated international law in Gaza and, in August, suspended weapons exports to the region | Kobi Gideon/GPO/DPA/Picture Alliance

International pressure on Germany

Observers say Germany is becoming increasingly isolated within the EU on this theme. For example, in May this year, two thirds of EU countries wanted to review the association agreement with Israel because of the allegations of human rights violations in Gaza. Germany opposed the review.

Following the weekend meeting in Copenhagen, Germany’s isolation is becoming increasingly evident, says Martin Kobler, former Egyptian Germany, Iraq and Pakistan, now retired, and a member of the Diplomats Without Borders.

“Even the Dutch want to adopt a harder line now,” says Kobler. “And of course, if you are isolated on a political issue like this, you need to invest increasingly in justifications.”

On the other hand, Kobler continues, other EU countries understand Germany’s embarrassed position on Israel because of the country’s history. “But Israel’s security need not mean the safety of the Netanyahu government,” points out Kobler.

German diplomacy chief Johann Wadephul even used the word “terror” to describe the actions of Israeli extremist settlers, something unthinkable for a year, experts say | Mussa Qawasma/Reuters

Legal implications, international crimes

Another diplomat told DW, under anonymity, that the German government has already sought legal counseling because it fears that Israel’s support may mean Germany’s complicity in war crimes, or even genocide. This week, the International Association of Genocide Studies stated that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza.

There are several lawsuits that could involve Germany in these allegations, both at the International Court of Justice, in The Hague, and in local courts.

“Our organization is directly testing Germany’s obligations under international law in German courts,” explains Alexander Schwarz, a lawyer at the European Center for Constitutional and Human Rights (ECCHR), based in Berlin. In mid -November, ECCHR will return to court in Berlin to question again the legality of German arms deliveries to Israel.

“If only one of these processes results in specific measures that need to be adopted by complicit countries, such as Germany, that would have an impact,” Schwarz told DW.

“There has been a slight change in winds in Germany recently,” he acknowledged, “but the German government has exceeded so many limits in the last 23 months that it may be wiser to maintain a certain pessimism as to the possibility of voluntary posture change.”

“But I would say that the end of the line would be any court – national or international – to declare that Germany, by providing weapons, is violating international law or being complicit in the crime of genocide.”

Originally published by DW on 09/05/2025

Por Cathrin Schaer

Rosie Birchard, in Copenhagen, contributed to this report.