AEX Course strong in the Red Sea on global financial markets

The AEX course knows how to keep itself fairly strong, while the rest of the financial world mainly turns red. Bitcoin of course has problems, but the American stock exchange also has a syrupy week. That has everything to do with an outflow of capital for the large tech companies, but perhaps also with the tension around Jackson Hole.

Tension around Jackson Hole

Today it is Jerome Powell’s turn, chairman of the US central bank, to deliver his last Jackson Hole speech. During this annual world top for central bankers, it is tradition that the chairman of the most powerful central bank in the world gives a speech about the future interest policy of the Federal Reserve.

That is now extra interesting, because there appears to be conflicting forces within the US economy.

On the one hand, economic growth is up to standard, unemployment historically low and the financial markets make all-time highs continuously, while on the other hand, inflation is also rising.

The market hopes for interest rates, but this cocktail of circumstances does not seem ideal for that. With the incoming economic data, it is becoming increasingly difficult to make a case for interest rates.

It is not for nothing that we see the chance of an interest rate reduction in September decreasing by the day. Where last week it was a 100 percent chance according to the Futuresmarkt, there is now only a chance of about 70 percent on an interest rate reduction in September.

Headwind for the stock market

Nevertheless, we stay in a period of headwind for the stock market. The AEX is also unable to break through definitively and to head towards new all-time highs. The last all-time high of the AEX now dates from February and is 952 points.

For the time being it has mainly been gold and the Chinese stock market that stole the show in 2025. There is a return of almost 30 percent for the Hang Seng Index, while the gold price has risen by more than 26 percent this year.

For the AEX there is only a pretty scanty return on the signs with 2.16 percent. If you pick up the wealth tax, there is no return on the Dutch stock exchange. In that respect, there seems to be a lost year for the AEX for the time being.