This Tuesday JP Morgan announced that the index that measures the Argentine risk. After the political crisis open for the scandal of the coimas and after weeks of financial collapses, he jumped and located at maximum levels since April. The index was 829 points, to the previous range to the exit of the exchange rate for people and the agreement with the IMF for 20 billion dollars.
Comparison of the evolution of the country risk in 2025, January 2, 2025 Base 100.- pic.twitter.com/pQh7s7GE5r
– Christian Buteler (@cbuteler) August 26, 2025
The scandal of the coimas, from Cúal Milei only shared a statement from the Argentine Swiss company without denying the fact, threw more gasoline on the fire after a complicated week in financial matters for the government. According to the traditional survey of Torcuato Di Tella, the Trust Index in Milei fell to its worst level since it assumed: a 13.6% drop compared to July and 16.5% in interannual terms. The decline was particularly significant in the conurbano (23.3%) and City of Buenos Aires (28.2%).
As for the expectation of devaluation, intense days in the futures market occurred. In July the Central Bank (BCRA) intervened with more than US $ 2 billion to contain, and the data at the beginning of August suggest that the BCRA continued to intervene in this market.
Despite the strong operation of the BCRA, which worries the IMF, the price is $ 1519 for November, the month after the national legislative elections, being above the exchange band for the first time. For December, the contracts that are negotiated are at $ 1554 and scale at $ 1584 for January of next year. For February, the $ 1600 barrier passes by quoting $ 1610.
The government sought to maintain the “exchange delay” or “cheap dollar” for elections as exchange anchor to anywhere. After spending more than half of the IMF loan selling reservations to maintain the low price, in July he had to offer juicy interest rates to banks and speculators so that they do not go to the dollar. Some consultants estimated that the surcharge will mean an estimated financial cost of 1.2 billion pesos.
Winter holidays also brought bad news for the containment of the currency. According to INDEC, in July the use of dollars abroad was more than US $ 500 million, although many expenses are usually not relieved, since half are estimated to be completed directly in foreign currency. Some analysts estimate that the year will close with a record output of between US $ 12,000 and 15,000 million.
Break with the debt scam and the gain of speculators
To get to the elections with a “cheap dollar” as exchange anchor Caputo set up a financial engineering to pay debt financed with more debt, a snowball. The cost of exchange peace (and low of inflation), the only battle knight of libertarian management, is paid with falling employment, salary and millionaire gains for speculators.
It is necessary to end the debt scam that generates a bleeding resource and gives juicy profits to speculators, non -existent in the world. Nationalize the bank under a single state bank managed by its workers can be a big step to avoid capital escape, where banks are the Grand Canal. Also to cut with their negotiated and put national savings at the service of guaranteeing soft loans for small businesses, for housing and protecting the entry of the small saver. Put the needs of the majorities above a small group of rich.
Source: www.laizquierdadiario.com
